What we’re reading (1/16)
“The Global Memory-Chip Shortage Will Cost Us All” (Wall Street Journal). “Prices for memory shot up 50% in the last quarter of 2025 and are projected to increase another 40% to 50% by the end of the first quarter of 2026, according to Counterpoint Research, fueled mainly by builders of data centers, who are willing to pay huge premiums.”
“Stock Investors’ Strategy For 2026: ‘Don’t Fight The White House’” (New York Times). “The U.S. attack on Venezuela sent the value of some oil stocks surging. Mr. Trump’s social media post calling for a cap on credit card interest rates caused the stocks of credit card issuers to slump. And after the president proposed new requirements governing Nvidia’s computer chip sales to China, that tech giant’s stock also fell, weighing on the rest of the market.”
“Why This CEO Won’t Let Private Funds Near His Company’s 401(k)” (Wall Street Journal). “Because of unfamiliarity, concern about high fees and the threat of lawsuits, employers are wary of adding nontraded investments to their 401(k)s. Cerulli Associates, a consulting firm, projects that by 2030, only about 7% of sponsors of 401(k) and similar retirement plans will offer an investment option that includes some private assets. Sullivan thinks employers offering 401(k)s should be even more skeptical. Private and public assets are profoundly different. In a private fund, as Sullivan has learned, even small details can turn into big stumbling blocks.”
“When Housing Policy Becomes Monetary Policy” (Cato Institute). “Basically, the administration is asking Fannie and Freddie to engage in the kind of large-scale asset purchases (LSAPs) the Fed used in the wake of the 2008 financial crisis and the COVID-19 pandemic. LSAPs are controversial even when conducted by the central bank charged with managing monetary policy. Having the GSEs carry out a similar strategy represents a significant expansion of their role and a dangerous institutional precedent. Fannie and Freddie were never designed to function as alternative monetary authorities.”
“Gold Falls As Trump Hesitates On Hassett As Fed Chair Pick” (Bloomberg). “Gold slipped the most in more than two weeks after US President Donald Trump expressed reluctance about nominating Kevin Hassett as Federal Reserve chair, casting further doubt over his search for the next head of the central bank.”
What we’re reading (1/15)
“Powell Investigation Upends Final Stretch Of Fed Chair Contest” (Wall Street Journal). “The criminal investigation into Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell threatens to upend the contest over whom President Trump will choose to succeed him as it enters its final stretch. The episode is creating new obstacles on Capitol Hill and raising hard questions about whether any nominee can be seen as independent—tension that was always present but is now much harder to ignore. Trump has made clear he prizes loyalty in his pick, but the Justice Department probe—which Powell said was part of a pressure campaign to get the Fed to lower interest rates—threatens to make that quality a liability.”
“Understanding Long-Term Winners In Emerging Markets” (Larry’s Substack). “Emerging markets have long captivated investors with their promise of rapid economic growth and diversification benefits. However, despite this allure, the reality has been sobering: since the 2008 global financial crisis, emerging market equities have underperformed U.S. equities by almost 10% annually. MSCI’s Anil Rao and Rohit Gupta, authors of the study ‘Long-Term Investing in Emerging Markets: Identifying Drivers of Total Shareholder Return in Emerging Market Equities,’ published in the Winter 2025 issue of The Journal of Investment Beta Strategies, dug into this puzzle, uncovering why some companies thrived while the broader market struggled.”
“Investors Should Not Be Barred From Buying Homes” (Issues & Insights). “The true portion of single-family homes owned by these “plunderers,” those holding 1,000 or more properties, is in reality much lower than 4%. They ‘make up just 2% of all investor-owned homes,’ says CNBC. Ninety percent of the market is actually under the ownership of small investors who have ‘10 properties or less.’”
“Stagflation In 2025. Overheating In 2026.” (Torsten Slok). “In 2025, we worried that the trade war and immigration restrictions would lead to stagflation. With those headwinds fading, the list of tailwinds keeps growing, and we are starting to worry about overheating in 2026. The bottom line is that there are significant upside catalysts to growth and inflation over the coming quarters[.]”
“Did Iran’s Currency Collapse? Rial Plummets To ‘0.00’ Against Euro While Inflation & Protests Escalate Across The Country” (The Sunday Guardian). “In a major blow, the Iranian currency, the rial, has effectively lost its value in Europe, dropping to zero against the euro. As a result, the rial can no longer be exchanged across European countries, further isolating Iran from the global financial system. Inside the country, the situation has deteriorated sharply, with ordinary citizens struggling to afford even basic necessities.”
What we’re reading (1/14)
“Tech Selloff Weighs On Nasdaq; Precious Metals Scale New Peaks” (Wall Street Journal). “Stocks retreated Wednesday, with the Nasdaq composite leading declines as Nvidia and other chip stocks such as Broadcom traded lower. On Tuesday, the Trump administration said Nvidia must meet new security requirements before sending H200 artificial-intelligence chips to China.”
“The Confidence Paradox” (Larry’s Substack). “This divergence between sentiment and fundamentals signals an unease about the sustainability of current conditions. Beneath the surface of steady GDP growth and resilient employment figures, 11 significant risks are developing that warrant consideration.”
“Supply - Demand Imbalance And Commodities” (Disciplined Systematic Global Macro Views). “The current supply-demand imbalance is not just a gold problem, but a silver problem. In fact, there is a supply imbalance with nickel, cobalt, copper, palladium, rhodium, and aluminium, along with a rare earths supply change problem. Surprisingly, all of these imbalances have been documented yet are only now being recognized.”
“Gold, Silver, Copper Surge As Explosive Rally Sweeps Over Metals Market” (Yahoo! Finance). “Gold futures hit a high of $4,650 per troy ounce, marking a 5% year-to-date gain. Wall Street analysts upped their forecasts in recent days in light of the recent US intervention in Venezuela, geopolitical tensions with Iran, and growing questions about Federal Reserve independence.”
“Age Of Invention: Tudor Trade War” (Anton Howes). “The places that protested, in other words, were where the raising of the wage caps would have felt the most out of step with their rising costs; but also where their costs would have fallen furthest and fastest upon the resumption of trade, which would explain why there was no further complaint upon the wage caps being lowered again the following year. In any case, regardless of what really happened in 1495-7 to the wage caps, the effects were brief. But the labour laws were indisputably in force in again, and their enforcement had been significantly tightened. They were soon — as I’ll explain in the next instalment — to become more painful and restrictive than ever before. If the effects of Henry VII on England’s economy were severe, the son whose succession he readily sacrificed it for, Henry VIII, were to be downright devastating.”
What we’re reading (1/13)
“Here’s The Inflation Breakdown For December 2025 — In One Chart” (CNBC). “Progress in the fight to throttle back inflation appeared to stall in December amid price pressures from groceries, dining out, utility gas, clothing and other categories of consumer spending.”
“Fed’s Barkin Calls December Inflation Data Encouraging” (Reuters). “Richmond Federal Reserve President Tom Barkin on Tuesday called December's inflation data "encouraging," though he noted inflation often spikes at the start of the year and said he hopes it will come in at modest levels for the next couple of months.”
“The Copper Boom Is Just Getting Started” (Semafor). “The meteoric rise in the price of copper will likely continue thanks to a growing supply deficit that could reach 10 million metric tons — 25% of projected demand — by 2040, according to a new forecast from S&P Global.”
“Top Risks For 2026” (Eurasia Group). “It's a time of great geopolitical uncertainty. Not because there's imminent conflict between the two biggest powers, the United States and China—that isn't even a top risk, it's a red herring this year. There's not (yet, at least) a second Cold War, with a rising China remaking the global system to its own liking, the Americans and allies resisting. Nor do tensions between the United States and Russia threaten to spiral out of control despite a war raging in Europe, the result of Vladimir Putin's longstanding grievances against the US-led order.”
“More Americans Are Surviving Cancer — Even The Deadliest Ones” (The Washington Post). “More Americans diagnosed with cancer are now surviving the disease — marking a positive trend that experts say reflects the effectiveness of early prevention and detection strategies, and advancements in treatment and care. New findings from the American Cancer Society’s annual report released Tuesday show for the first time that the five-year survival rate for all cancers has reached 70 percent, with the most notable survival gains occurring among people diagnosed with more fatal cancers such as myeloma (a blood cancer), liver cancer and lung cancer.”
What we’re reading (1/12)
“Lawfare For Dummies, Monetary Edition” (Wall Street Journal). “This brings to mind the medieval episode of England’s King Henry II idly importuning some knights to rid him of Archbishop Thomas Becket, only to be surprised when they actually did it. That historical episode proved self-defeating for the king (Becket became a saint and Henry lost his fight for supremacy over the church), and this one may not work out better for Mr. Trump. His saner advisers are worried that Wall Street will view this as an attack on the Fed’s institutional independence, which it is.”
“Powell Investigation: Drumbeat Of Republican Opposition Grows On Capitol Hill” (CNBC). “The GOP resistance could derail Trump’s eventual pick to succeed Powell when the Fed chief’s term is up in May, as North Carolina Republican Sen. Thom Tillis, a member of the Senate Banking Committee, threatens to block any nominee to the central bank until the investigation is resolved. Tillis’ comments are now being echoed by other Republicans.”
“Former Officials Say DOJ Probe Threatens Fed Independence, Has ‘No Place In The United States’” (Yahoo! Finance). “‘The reported criminal inquiry into Federal Reserve Chair Jay Powell is an unprecedented attempt to use prosecutorial attacks to undermine [the Fed's] independence,’ said the statement signed by former Fed Chairs Janet Yellen, Ben Bernanke, and Alan Greenspan, as well as four past Treasury secretaries who served under both Republican and Democratic presidents.”
“David Ellison Takes Warner Bros. To Court As Paramount Launches Proxy Battle Over Netflix Bid” (The Hollywood Reporter). “In a letter to WBD shareholders Monday, Paramount CEO David Ellison said his company has filed suit against WBD in Delaware seeking greater financial disclosure of the Netflix deal. Additionally, Ellison said his company plans to nominate its own slate of directors for WBD’s board who they believe would vote against the deal with Netflix.”
“Venezuela Stocks Soar 130% To Record Highs As Maduro’s Ouster Spurs Economic Turnaround Hopes” (CNBC). “Venezuela’s stock market has not only shrugged off the capture of former President Nicolás Maduro by U.S. forces, it has surged to a record high as investors bet that the battered economy could finally see a turnaround. The country’s benchmark Indice Bursatil de Capitalizacion, or IBC, has gained more than 130% since the U.S. operation on Jan. 3.”
What we’re reading (1/11)
“Fed Served With DOJ Subpoenas, Powell Vows To Stand Firm” (Bloomberg). “Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell said the US central bank had been served grand jury subpoenas from the Justice Department threatening a criminal indictment, a dramatic escalation of the Trump administration’s attacks on the Fed.”
“Wall Street Is Making Bullish Bets On The Economy” (Wall Street Journal). “Call it the glass half-full market. In recent weeks, government data has been mixed, showing both disappointing job gains and robust economic growth. But U.S. investors have been focusing on the positive side of things, piling into bets that suggest that they have strong confidence that the economy will keep powering forward.”
“‘Inflation Will Surprise To The Downside In 2026’: Why Wall Street Expects Juiced Economy, Stock Gains This Year” (Yahoo! Finance). “Investors may be "having a cake and eating it" in 2026, with Wall Street strategists predicting stock market gains driven by Fed rate cuts, tax incentives, and lower-than-expected inflation.”
“The Landlords Are Not The Problem” (New York Times). “Landlords are not the cause of the nation’s housing crisis, and any plan that reduces investment in housing is only going to make matters worse. The crisis is a simple problem with a complicated solution. The problem is that the United States does not have enough housing. The hard part is building more. It is certainly easier, and perhaps better politics, to talk about barring investors, or imposing rent controls, or kicking immigrants out of the country, but none of that is going to do the trick. The way to make housing more affordable is to build more housing.”
“Credit Growth Accelerating In The US And Europe” (Torsten Slok). “Data for bank lending points to a gradual recovery in the US and Europe[.]”
What we’re reading (1/10)
“Hedge Funds Get Ready For The ‘Donroe Doctrine’ Trade” (Wall Street Journal). “Call it the ‘Donroe trade.’ After the brazen capture of Venezuelan strongman Nicolás Maduro, investors are racing to capitalize on President Trump’s ambitions to dominate the Western Hemisphere. Hedge funds and other investment firms, already boosted by a sharp rally in Venezuelan debt, are mapping out trips to Caracas to scope out on-the-ground opportunities. Some are investigating niche instruments, like arbitration claims and unpaid state debts.”
“Wall Street’s Start To 2026 Is Going Exactly According To Plan. Are Investors Too Confident?” (CNBC). “Not only is the S&P 500 up 1.7% but the tape has broadened just as nearly every play caller has been demanding, with the equal-weighted S&P ahead by almost twice as much. The insistent consensus call heading into the year for a reacceleration in the real economy — propelled by tax-based stimulus and an administration desperate to ‘run it hot’ — has quickly been reflected in market leadership.”
“More Bonds Are Teetering On The Brink Of Junk: Credit Weekly” (Bloomberg). “Beneath the calm surface of the US corporate bond market, there are worrying signs about companies that could lose their investment-grade status. The first full week of the year has been one of the busiest for US corporate debt sales on record, and risk premiums stayed low even amid heavy issuance. But the amount of bonds teetering on the brink of junk surged last year, according to JPMorgan Chase & Co.”
“The Space War Will Be Won In Greenland” (UnHerd). “[O]ne factor remains underplayed. The United States is currently engaged in a fiercely contested space race with China, and, to a lesser extent, Russia. Space offers unlimited energy, unlimited resources, and unlimited internet connectivity — and the High North is crucial. This is because satellites that orbit from pole to pole must pass each pole with every orbit, which means that they fly over a given point in the High North far more often than a given point toward the Equator. As such, places like Svalbard are ideal locations for ground stations that keep in touch with constellations of satellites, be they commercial or military.”
“The Real Da Vinci Code” (Science). “Gonzalez-Juarbe’s swabs may have captured a biological clue. In a remarkable milestone in a decadelong odyssey, he and other members of the Leonardo da Vinci DNA Project (LDVP), a global scientific collective, report in a paper posted today on bioRxiv that they have recovered DNA from Holy Child and other objects—and some may be from Leonardo himself.”
What we’re reading (1/9)
“Gargantuan 'Big Tech' Investment Discredits 'Monopoly' Alarmism” (RealClear Markets). “There’s no such thing as monopoly in the technology sector, or for that matter any sector defined by intense dynamism. Precisely because the potential for outsize investment returns for disrupters in dynamic sectors is so enormous, stasis is tantamount to obsolescence.”
“Even Warren Buffett Couldn’t Keep Beating The Market Without Fail. Here’s Why.” (MarketWatch). “It’s important to focus on this investment lesson because hardly anyone else is doing so. Most of the articles memorializing Buffett’s phenomenal career have instead highlighted how much money you would have made if you had been lucky enough to invest in Berkshire Hathaway when Buffett started in the mid-1960s. While your cumulative (unannualized) return since then would be in the millions of percent, reporting that huge number does not help you become a better investor. Pointing this out isn’t a criticism of Buffett’s incredible abilities. But it’s important to stress that an investor as successful as Buffett will eventually attract so much money from others that even he will find it difficult to repeat his prior successes.”
“Wait, Tesla Is A Value Stock? Welcome To The Wacky World Of Factor ETFs” (Wall Street Journal). “When you crack open several funds that sound the same, you can find very different investments inside. That’s one of the most subtle, but important, lessons of 2025. As exchange-traded funds have become the default choice for millions of investors, it’s vital to understand that you can’t know what you’re going to get unless you take the time to look inside first. To see what I mean, consider factor ETFs, also called smart-beta funds. What’s a “factor”? It’s a set of characteristics, shared by large numbers of companies, that shape risk and return—for example, value or momentum. Academic research has shown that many factors have outperformed the overall market over the long run.”
“Trump Calls For One-Year Cap On Credit Card Rates At 10%” (Bloomberg). “President Donald Trump on Friday called for a one-year cap on credit card interest rates at 10%, effective Jan. 20, without specifying details. ‘Please be informed that we will no longer let the American Public be ‘ripped off’ by Credit Card Companies that are charging Interest Rates of 20 to 30%, and even more, which festered unimpeded during the Sleepy Joe Biden Administration. AFFORDABILITY!’ he wrote on social media.”
“Trump Posted Unpublished Jobs Data Early On Social Media” (Bloomberg). “President Donald Trump posted a chart on social media Thursday evening that included figures in the yet-to-be released December employment report. The chart, which showed the private sector added 654,000 jobs ‘since January,’ matched figures that were not publicly published until 8:30 a.m. in Washington on Friday. It was posted on Truth Social about 12 hours before the data was set to be released.”
What we’re reading (1/8)
“The Stock-Market Rally Isn’t Just About Tech Anymore” (Wall Street Journal). “Investors are finally showing love to companies outside of the tech sector. Growing economic optimism, along with a more cautious view of the artificial-intelligence build-out, is prompting a major “rotation trade” on Wall Street, with investors selling technology stocks and buying up the shares of most every other type of business.”
“Why Big Tech Stocks Are So Much More Attractive Than They Were Only Two Months Ago” (MarketWatch). “For most Big Tech stocks, forward price/earnings ratios have declined recently, and it is not only because share prices have fallen. Forward price/earnings ratios are current stock prices divided by consensus 12-month earnings-per-share estimates among analysts working for brokerage and research firms. For this article, the forward P/E ratios are based on LSEG’s “smart estimates,” which are adjusted weekly to remove extreme outliers among the analysts’ estimates, as well as individual estimates that have not been revised recently.”
“This Simple Metric Could Predict Future Stock Market Returns” (Morningstar). “groundbreaking study, published in the September 2025 issue of the International Review of Economics & Finance, reveals that a surprisingly simple metric—the difference between current S&P 500 earnings yield and long-term real Treasury Inflation-Protected Securities yield—has significant power to possibly predict stock market returns. The research demonstrates that when actual returns deviate from this baseline prediction, these deviations are systematically related to inflation, monetary policy, and economic fundamentals, offering investors a new lens for understanding market dynamics.”
“Rebuilding Ukraine Could Be Top European Investment Theme Of 2026” (Joachim Klement, Reuters). “Rebuilding is expected to cost around $524 billion over the next decade, and it will likely be financed mainly by the European Union and the private sector. Brussels has signalled that, in exchange for its support, it expects European companies to win the bulk of rebuilding contracts. Washington is likely to attach similar conditions, steering any money invested in Ukraine’s reconstruction back toward U.S. contractors.”
“Artificial Intelligence Begins Prescribing Medications In Utah” (Politico). “The state has launched a pilot program with health-tech startup Doctronic that allows an AI system to handle routine prescription renewals for patients with chronic conditions. The initiative, which kicked off quietly last month, is a high-stakes test of whether AI can safely take on one of health care’s most sensitive tasks and how far that could spread beyond one AI-friendly red state.”
What we’re reading (1/7)
“Trump Wants To Bar Wall St. Investors From Buying Single-Family Homes” (New York Times). “President Trump said he wanted Congress to take immediate steps to stop private equity firms and other large investors from buying more single-family homes, embracing a position with populist appeal that has long failed to gain broader traction. Mr. Trump’s announcement, which he made in a social media post on Wednesday, is aimed at Wall Street-backed firms that for years have bought up homes and rented them out. Critics say this business has driven up prices in some markets and made it hard for first-time buyers to purchase homes.”
“Trump Blocks Defense Company Payouts Until Arms Production Speeds Up” (Yahoo! Finance). “U.S. President Donald Trump vowed to block defense contractors from paying dividends or buying back shares until they speed up weapons production, a rare presidential strike at Wall Street norms that sent defense stocks tumbling and signaled sweeping changes for America’s military-industrial complex.”
“Anthropic Raising $10 Billion At $350 Billion Value” (Wall Street Journal). “Anthropic, the developer of the chatbot Claude, plans to raise $10 billion at a valuation of $350 billion before the new investment, according to people familiar with the matter, nearly doubling its valuation from four months ago. GIC, Singapore’s sovereign-wealth fund, and Coatue Management plan to lead the new financing, the people said. The funding round, the third megadeal in the past year, follows a $13 billion investment in September that valued the company at $183 billion.”
“Why Bonds Now Look Like A Better Bet Over Stocks And Gold” (MarketWatch). “Contrarian investors are betting that bonds will outperform both stocks and gold in coming months. That’s because bond market-timers are highly pessimistic right now, kicking bonds out of favor. In contrast, stock and gold market timers are quite optimistic — even to the point of irrational exuberance. In just 15% of trading days since 2000 has the average bond-timer been more pessimistic than currently. In contrast, the average market-timer who focuses on the broad stock market is at the opposite end of the sentiment spectrum. In just 4% of all trading days over the past 25 years has this average stock-market timer been more optimistic than now. The average gold timer is almost as exuberant — 27% of the time over the past 25 years was the average timer more optimistic than today.”
“The Venezuelan Stock Market” (Marginal Revolution). “‘Venezuela’s stock market is now up +73% since President Maduro was captured. Since December 23rd, as President Trump ramped up pressure on Maduro’s government, Venezuela’s stock market is up +148%.’ Here is the link and chart. And up seventeen percent in the last day, and now some more on top of that. Note the bolivar is down only a small amount since December 23. I see the reality as such: a) Immoral actions were taken, leading up to the removal of Maduro, and immoral measures are likely to continue, both from the United States and from various Venezuelan replacement governments. b) Trump’s actions have been some mix of unlawful and unconstitutional, to what degree you can debate. c) In expected value terms, the people of Venezuela are now much better off. It can and should be debated how much a) and b) should be weighted against c). But to deny c), or even to fail to mention it, is, I think, quite delusional. Effective Altruists, are you paying attention?”
What we’re reading (1/5)
“Dow Jumps Nearly 600 Points To Close At A Record As Markets Rally After U.S.-Venezuela Action” (CNBC). “Stocks rose on Monday even after the U.S.’ attack on Venezuela and capture of leader Nicolas Maduro as crude oil prices saw gains and investors bet the action would not lead to bigger geopolitical conflicts that upset markets.”
“A Mystery Trader Made $400,000 Betting On Maduro’s Downfall” (Wall Street Journal). “The trader’s final bet came at 9:58 p.m. ET on Friday, shortly before President Trump ordered the military to move forward. Such contracts were priced at just 8 cents apiece, implying that Polymarket users saw only an 8% probability of the Venezuelan strongman losing power this month, the platform’s data shows. Several hours later, news broke of the U.S. operation to capture Maduro and the contracts shot up in value. In the end, the trader earned nearly $410,000 in profit on about $34,000 worth of wagers. More than half the value of the total wager was placed the evening before the attack.”
“Chevron And Exxon Stocks Jump. Here’s What Analysts Are Saying About Big Oil Companies After Maduro’s Capture.” (MarketWatch). “Shares in the oil sector were flying on Monday as investors scrambled to assess what the capture of Venezuela’s President Nicolás Maduro could mean for the industry. While fresh geopolitical headlines appeared to have little impact on U.S. stocks or crude, the big oil names were moving as some investors gauged future access to oil reserves in the country.”
“Wall Street Sees Another Banner Year For Markets. Could Anything Stop It?” (New York Times). “To many investors, it feels as if the S&P 500 is on autopilot, with nothing but rising returns on the horizon. Last year, the benchmark index racked up 39 record highs — after 57 the year prior — on the way to an annual gain of 16.4 percent. Wall Street expects more of the same this year. Analysts polled by FactSet have forecast, in aggregate, that the benchmark index’s price target will finish 2026 a whisker below 8,000 — at 7,968.78. That would imply, yes, another 16 percent gain from Wednesday’s year-end close of 6,845.50, and would put the S&P 500 on its best four-year pace since the 1990s, according to Bloomberg.”
“What We Learned About Microplastics In 2025” (Washington Post). “They found the plastics were not only entering the brain — they were actually accumulating there. Brains of people who died in 2024, for example, had significantly higher concentrations of microplastics than the brains of people who died in 2016. And there was no correlation between the amount of microplastics and the age of the person at the time of their death.”
What we’re reading (1/4)
“Wall Street Expects The Market To Keep Rallying In 2026 Despite Lofty Valuations” (Wall Street Journal). “Wall Street is betting that falling interest rates and strong corporate earnings will be enough to eke out yet one more year of stock-market gains. It’s going to be close. After posting double-digit percentage increases for three straight years, from 2023 through 2025, the S&P 500 and other major U.S. indexes enter year four of their rally with stretched valuations on many big stocks and a cloudier economic picture. There are enough positives to give investors and analysts hope, but some worry there isn’t enough to keep up the pace of 2025.”
“December Jobs Numbers Get Data Back On Track During First Full Week Of Trading In 2026: What To Watch” (Yahoo! Finance). “Stocks finished trading on Friday — the second-to-last session of the ‘Santa Claus rally’ period — with the Dow Jones Industrial Average leading the major indexes higher to open the new year as investors began to evaluate the 2026 landscape.”
“Asian Markets Rise, Defense Stocks Lead After U.S. Captures Venezuela’s Maduro” (CNBC). “Asia-Pacific markets began the first full trading week of 2026 on a stronger note after the U.S. said it had attacked Venezuela and captured President Nicolas Maduro over the weekend. Oil prices edged lower as markets weighed the potential impact of geopolitical tensions.”
“U.S. Interventions In The New World, With Leader Removal” (Marginal Revolution). “I wish to focus on cases where the key leaders actually were removed. After all, we know that is the case in Venezuela today. Maybe these efforts were rights violations, or unconstitutional, and yes that matters. But how did they fare in utilitarian terms? […] the utilitarian in you, at least, should be happy about Venezuela, whether or not you should be happy on net. You should note two things. First, the Latin interventions on the whole have gone much better than the Middle East interventions. Perhaps that is because the region has stronger ties to democracy, and also is closer to the United States, both geographically and culturally. Second, looking only at the successes, often they took a long time and/or were not exactly the exact kinds of successes the intervenors may have sought.”
“Dow, S&P 500, Nasdaq Futures Steady After US Intervention In Venezuela, Arrest Of Maduro” (Yahoo! Finance). “US stock futures were little changed Sunday night as investors assessed geopolitical developments following a US military operation in Venezuela that led to the removal and arrest of President Nicolás Maduro.”
What we’re reading (1/2)
“Global Stocks’ Great Year Was About More Than The Dollar” (Wall Street Journal). “Dollar worries definitely dominated the headlines in 2025 with “de-dollarization” entering the mainstream lexicon. Worries over the U.S. fiscal path and its political volatility helped power not just foreign stocks, but also gold and crypto. But the dollar’s slide hardly explained everything about non-U.S. stocks’ performance. Global equity strategists at Goldman Sachs, who had recommended global diversification for investors in 2025, broke down the individual performance of several major national indexes by four factors: earnings growth, valuation multiple, dividends and currency adjustments.”
“107% Tariffs On Italian Pasta No Longer Set To Take Effect” (CNN Business). “Most products from the European Union are already subject to tariffs of at least 15%. The pasta-specific tariffs, initially proposed in October at 92%, would have subject Italian pasta to a total rate of 107%. The newly announced rates would put the levies between 24% and 29%.”
“Bridgewater, D.E. Shaw Among Top Hedge Fund Gainers Of 2025” (Bloomberg). “Bridgewater Associates’ flagship money pool posted record gains, while D.E. Shaw & Co.’s strategies soared as much as 28% to rank among the biggest hedge fund winners of 2025 when tariff-fueled market uncertainty presented a fertile hunting ground for traders. Bridgewater’s Pure Alpha II macro fund returned 34% last year, its best ever, while the All Weather strategy rose 20%, a person with knowledge of the matter said, asking not to be identified discussing private information. D.E. Shaw’s flagship multistrategy Composite hedge fund gained 18.5% and Oculus made an estimated 28.2%.”
“Self-Driving Cars Aren’t Nearly A Solved Problem” (Yarrow Bouchard). “Contrary to popular belief, Waymos aren't actually fully autonomous, and the problem is harder than it may seem.”
“US On Verge Of Losing Measles Elimination Status As Outbreak Surges In South Carolina” (The Mirror). “The United States is on the verge of losing its measles elimination status as cases surge amid an ongoing outbreak in South Carolina, where hundreds are in quarantine.”
December performance update
Prime: -1.24% (-0.23% LTM)
Select: +7.15% (+44.05% LTM)
SPY ETF: +0.76% (+17.72% LTM)
Bogleheads Portfolio (80% VTI + 20% BND): +0.55% (+18.36% LTM)
January picks available now
The new Prime and Select picks for January are available starting now, based on a model run put through today (December 31). As a note, I will be measuring the performance on these picks from the first trading day of the month, Friday, January 2, 2026 (at the mid-spread open price) through the last trading day of the month, Friday, January 30, 2026 (at the mid-spread closing price).
January picks available soon
I’ll be publishing the Prime and Select picks for the month of January before Friday, January 2 (the first trading day of the month). As always, SPC’s performance measurement for the month of December, as well as SPC’s cumulative performance, will assume the sale of the December picks at the closing price (at the mid-point of the closing bid and ask prices) on the last trading day of the month (Wednesday, December 31).
What we’re reading (12/29)
“Every Wall Street Analyst Now Predicts A Stock Rally In 2026” (Bloomberg). “At the big banks and the boutique investment shops, an optimistic consensus has taken hold: the US stock market will rally in 2026 for a fourth straight year, marking the longest winning streak in nearly two decades.”
“Gold, Silver Plunge After Historic Rally: ‘When It Gets This Stretched, Be Careful’” (Yahoo! Finance). “Gold and silver tumbled after touching record highs, bringing a parabolic move in the precious metals space to a screeching halt. Gold futures fell 4.5% to just above $4,340 per troy ounce. Silver futures dropped nearly 8% after briefly touching $80 per ounce.”
“Why The A.I. Rally (And The Bubble Talk) Could Continue Next Year” (DealBook). “If there is one question that has been asked more than any other this year in the business world, it is this: Are we in an artificial intelligence bubble? DealBook’s managing editor, Brian O’Keefe, takes a look at all the arguments for and against that possibility — so you can make up your own mind.”
“Medical Breakthroughs In 2025” (Scientific Discovery). “when I read most science journalism, hardly any of it mentions these achievements, the stream of innovation, or explains what is still untreatable and why. There's instead far too much hyping up of preliminary studies – what caused/cured cancer in six mice, for example – and much less about what’s changing people’s lives right now, let alone how much people’s lives have changed over the decades. So, since last year, I’ve been writing round-ups of the biggest breakthroughs in medicine and putting them into context to give you a sense of where we are.”
“The Case Of The $400,000 Massachusetts Lobster Heist” (Wall Street Journal). “New England is known for lobster. But lately, it is known for the lobsters that went missing. Thieves allegedly stole a truckload of lobster valued at $400,000 from a Massachusetts facility earlier this month. The scheme was complex, according to Dylan Rexing, chief executive of Rexing Cos., the logistics firm that was coordinating the shipment. The first part allegedly involved a phishing scam, and not of the seafood kind. According to Rexing, a culprit ever so slightly altered the email domain name of a real trucking company. The logistics firm hired what turned out to be a fraudulent entity, he said. Then, a perpetrator arrived on Dec. 12 to collect the lobster shipment at a Taunton, Mass., cold-storage center, run by a third party, where a Rexing customer was storing the lobster. Rexing said he believes the culprit impersonated a carrier by presenting a fake commercial driver’s license. The culprit’s tractor-trailer had the real trucking company’s name and trailer number on the side, he said.”
What we’re reading (12/28)
“In A Wild Year For Markets, Investors Who Did Nothing Did Just Fine” (Wall Street Journal). “Markets were assailed by a trio of disruptive forces this year. Yet investors were rewarded for doing nothing. If you owned U.S. stocks at the start of the year, you made good money. If you owned foreign stocks, even better. If you held Treasurys, you did well. And if you parked up in cash, the yield stayed high. But doing nothing was hard as tariffs, loss of trust in America and artificial intelligence whipsawed portfolios. Streetwise spent the year documenting these three major market themes, and the wild ups and downs they sparked.”
“Americans Hate AI. Which Party Will Benefit?” (Politico). “It’s become a common occurrence: Michigan Gov. Gretchen Whitmer posts a light-hearted video on social media. She’s Christmas shopping, or she’s talking about her Michigan accent or she’s touting her administration’s accomplishments. And immediately, the comments start rolling in, all demanding the same thing: Say no to data centers in the state. Stop construction. ‘All I want for Christmas is legislation banning data centers in Michigan.’”
“Pope Leo Prepares To Outline Stance On AI” (Semafor). “AI safety proponents are looking to the leader of the Catholic Church for help establishing guardrails on the fast-moving technology. A public letter from Pope Leo XIV is expected in the coming weeks, Transformer reported, establishing ‘a clear moral stance on both the dangers and opportunities posed by the technology.’ Leo — who picked his papal name from a pope who led the Church through another period of technological transformation — has signaled he is prioritizing AI and has overseen several meetings dedicated to the topic. Such Vatican guidance might not normally make waves, but Catholicism has seen a resurgence in the US in recent years, particularly in Silicon Valley, while AI is becoming salient politically.”
“He Was A Supreme Court Lawyer. Then His Double Life Caught Up With Him.” (New York Times). “Thomas Goldstein was a superstar in the legal world. He was also a secret high-stakes gambler, whose wild 10-year run may now land him in prison.”
“The School That Churns Out America’s Auctioneers” (Wall Street Journal). “The first thing you notice as people file into a Best Western hotel conference room for the first morning of auction school is nobody has coffee. It dries out the throat. Students stand in a circle as an instructor, Rusty Trzpuc, who wears a leather belt imprinted with the word ‘sold’ on the back, claps out a metronomic beat. The group chants tongue-twisters and numerical sequences, forward and backwards, in unison, guided by his rhythm. ‘Lean in,’ Trzpuc yells to one participant. He pivots. ‘Lighten up on the arm gestures,’ he shouts to another. ‘Palms up, invite those bids,’ he hollers to everyone. Welcome to the Western College of Auctioneering in Bozeman, Mont., a major training ground for a profession that is critical to the sale of cars and cattle in America. Since it was founded in 1948, the school has matriculated over 5,000 students, who also auction everything from real estate to farm equipment to fine art.”
What we’re reading (12/27)
“Companies Are Outlining Plans For 2026. Hiring Isn’t One Of Them.” (Wall Street Journal). “The corporate playbook for next year? Don’t hire. Companies are looking to stay lean into 2026 while relying on technology to take on more tasks. Forecasters at jobs site Indeed expect relatively minimal hiring growth in 2026 and e-commerce platform Shopify and Chime Financial are already vowing to keep the size of their employee bases roughly flat.”
“Rates Higher For Longer Continues” (Apollo). “Fiscal and inflation worries are putting upward pressure on long-term interest rates across the G3, and these concerns are not going away anytime soon...The bottom line is that long-term interest rates are going to stay higher for longer and investors should plan accordingly.”
“Beyond The 12-1 Rule” (Larry Swedroe). “Not all trading days contain equal amounts of new information. Consider these scenarios: Scenario A: A pharmaceutical company’s stock rises 5% on a random Wednesday with no news and light trading volume. This could be noise, perhaps driven by a large institutional rebalancing or temporary supply-demand imbalances. Scenario B: The same pharmaceutical company’s stock rises 5% immediately after announcing positive Phase 3 trial results during an earnings call. This return is directly tied to fundamental, value-relevant information. Traditional momentum strategies can’t distinguish between these scenarios—both contribute equally to the stock’s ranking. But intuitively, Scenario B contains far more predictive signal about future returns.”
“Bankruptcies Soar As Companies Grapple With Inflation, Tariffs” (Washington Post). “Corporate bankruptcies surged in 2025, rivaling levels not seen since the immediate aftermath of the Great Recession, as import-dependent businesses absorbed the highest tariffs in decades. At least 717 companies filed for bankruptcy through November, according to data from S&P Global Market Intelligence. That’s roughly 14 percent more than the same 11 months of 2024, and the highest tally since 2010.”
“Three In Four Americans Say Groceries Are So Expensive They’ve Been Forced To Cut Down On Other Spending” (Fortune). “More than 2 in 3 respondents (67.6%) said that they’re struggling to pay grocery bills because of inflation and rising food prices, according to a survey by Swiftly, which provides digital and media solutions for brick-and-mortar supermarkets. More than 3 out of 4 (75.2%) responded that they’ve reduced spending in other areas to afford groceries, and in a follow-up question selected what areas they’ve cut spending in the most to pay grocery bills, with entertainment spending the most likely to be cut, followed by spending on travel, clothing, and going out to eat or drink.”
What we’re reading (12/26)
“America’s Biggest Oil Field Is Turning Into A Pressure Cooker” (Wall Street Journal). “Shale drillers have turned the biggest oil field in the U.S. into a pressure cooker that is literally bursting at the seams. Producers in the Permian Basin of West Texas and New Mexico extract roughly half of the U.S.’s crude. They also produce copious amounts of toxic, salty water, which they pump back into the ground. Now, some of the reservoirs that collect the fluids are overflowing—and the producers keep injecting more.”
“Gold, Silver Bulls Taunt Bitcoin Investors Amid Parabolic Rally: ‘Time Has Come’ To Switch” (Yahoo! Finance). “On Friday, gold futures rose above $4,550 to hover at or near record highs, capping a year marked by more than 50 such records. Meanwhile, silver also jumped over $75 per ounce, extending its year-to-date gains to 150% in a parabolic rally driven by concerns about physical shortages during a time of robust industrial demand. Platinum and copper have also soared to records this year.”
“AI Made Tech Billionaires Even Richer This Year. Here’s How Much.” (MarketWatch). “This has been a great year for artificial-intelligence companies, which launched model after model and ramped up spending. AI has also made a lot of rich people much richer. More than 50 individuals involved in the AI sector became billionaires this year, Forbes reported on Thursday. Many of those people are entrepreneurs involved in startups, such as the seven co-founders of Anthropic, which nearly tripled its valuation in less than a year.”
“Why Private-Equity Millionaires Love South Dakota” (Wall Street Journal). “South Dakota is one of a handful of states, including Nevada, Wyoming and Alaska, that have no income tax and allow people who set up trusts to also be a beneficiary of them. Proponents say the state offers a host of other benefits for trusts—including protection of assets from creditors and the ability to last forever—that tip the scales in its favor.”
“Which Published Results Can You Trust?” (Marginal Revolution). “[T]rust literatures, not individual research studies. By a ‘literature,’ I mean the collective work conducted by many researchers, acting in decentralized fashion, to publish and circulate the results that will best persuade other researchers. Second, treat research articles, or their popular media coverage, as possibilities to put in your mental toolbox rather than settled truths.”