What we’re reading (1/7)
“Trump Wants To Bar Wall St. Investors From Buying Single-Family Homes” (New York Times). “President Trump said he wanted Congress to take immediate steps to stop private equity firms and other large investors from buying more single-family homes, embracing a position with populist appeal that has long failed to gain broader traction. Mr. Trump’s announcement, which he made in a social media post on Wednesday, is aimed at Wall Street-backed firms that for years have bought up homes and rented them out. Critics say this business has driven up prices in some markets and made it hard for first-time buyers to purchase homes.”
“Trump Blocks Defense Company Payouts Until Arms Production Speeds Up” (Yahoo! Finance). “U.S. President Donald Trump vowed to block defense contractors from paying dividends or buying back shares until they speed up weapons production, a rare presidential strike at Wall Street norms that sent defense stocks tumbling and signaled sweeping changes for America’s military-industrial complex.”
“Anthropic Raising $10 Billion At $350 Billion Value” (Wall Street Journal). “Anthropic, the developer of the chatbot Claude, plans to raise $10 billion at a valuation of $350 billion before the new investment, according to people familiar with the matter, nearly doubling its valuation from four months ago. GIC, Singapore’s sovereign-wealth fund, and Coatue Management plan to lead the new financing, the people said. The funding round, the third megadeal in the past year, follows a $13 billion investment in September that valued the company at $183 billion.”
“Why Bonds Now Look Like A Better Bet Over Stocks And Gold” (MarketWatch). “Contrarian investors are betting that bonds will outperform both stocks and gold in coming months. That’s because bond market-timers are highly pessimistic right now, kicking bonds out of favor. In contrast, stock and gold market timers are quite optimistic — even to the point of irrational exuberance. In just 15% of trading days since 2000 has the average bond-timer been more pessimistic than currently. In contrast, the average market-timer who focuses on the broad stock market is at the opposite end of the sentiment spectrum. In just 4% of all trading days over the past 25 years has this average stock-market timer been more optimistic than now. The average gold timer is almost as exuberant — 27% of the time over the past 25 years was the average timer more optimistic than today.”
“The Venezuelan Stock Market” (Marginal Revolution). “‘Venezuela’s stock market is now up +73% since President Maduro was captured. Since December 23rd, as President Trump ramped up pressure on Maduro’s government, Venezuela’s stock market is up +148%.’ Here is the link and chart. And up seventeen percent in the last day, and now some more on top of that. Note the bolivar is down only a small amount since December 23. I see the reality as such: a) Immoral actions were taken, leading up to the removal of Maduro, and immoral measures are likely to continue, both from the United States and from various Venezuelan replacement governments. b) Trump’s actions have been some mix of unlawful and unconstitutional, to what degree you can debate. c) In expected value terms, the people of Venezuela are now much better off. It can and should be debated how much a) and b) should be weighted against c). But to deny c), or even to fail to mention it, is, I think, quite delusional. Effective Altruists, are you paying attention?”
