What we’re reading (12/10)
“U.S. Inflation Hit A 39-Year High In November” (Wall Street Journal). “U.S. inflation reached a nearly four-decade high in November, as strong consumer demand collided with pandemic-related supply constraints. The Labor Department said the consumer-price index—which measures what consumers pay for goods and services—rose 6.8% in November from the same month a year ago. That was the fastest pace since 1982 and the sixth straight month in which inflation topped 5%.”
“Why High Inflation Will Persist In America Well Into The New Year” (The Economist). “If these headlines about inflation highs seem like clockwork in America, that is because, to a significant extent, they now are. Such are the basic mathematics of year-on-year price trends. The surge in inflation since the start of 2021 means that it is guaranteed to remain elevated in annual terms for a while to come. A relatively optimistic forecast would have inflation returning to its pre-pandemic norm only at the very end of 2022.”
“Reasons For Optimism After A Difficult Year” (Bill Gates). “I am hopeful…that the end [of the pandemic] is finally in sight. It might be foolish to make another prediction, but I think the acute phase of the pandemic will come to a close some time in 2022.”
“A Better Deal For The World's Workers” (Dani Rodrik, Project Syndicate). “In developing countries, where standard economic theory predicted that workers would be the main beneficiary of the expanding global division of labor, corporations and capital again reaped the biggest gains. A forthcoming book by George Washington University’s Adam Dean shows that even where democratic governments prevailed, trade liberalization went hand in hand with repression of labor rights.”
“Do Portfolios Have A UAP Risk?” (Financial Times). “What’s curious, then, is the degree to which markets have thus far ignored what is becoming the transformation of one of the greatest unknown unknowns of all time into a known unknown. We are, of course, talking about the growing seriousness with which both Pentagon officials and Congress have starting taking the phenomenon of so-called Unidentified Aerial Phenomena (UAP) -- more colloquially known as UFOs.”
What we’re reading (12/9)
“Hedge Funds’ November Performance Worst Since March 2020” (Reuters). “Hedge funds posted their worst performance in 20 months in November, after a global market selloff sparked by concerns over the Omicron COVID variant, according to data from HedgeFund Research. Financial markets went into a tailspin in the final week of November with U.S. stocks losing nearly 4% in the last five trading sessions of the month, after news of the variant hit headlines. Currency and bond market volatility also jumped.”
“Investors Brace For The Highest Inflation Reading In Nearly 40 Years” (CNBC). “Wall Street expects the the index to reflect a 0.7% gain for the month, which would translate into a 6.7% increase from a year ago, according to Dow Jones estimates. Excluding food and energy, so-called core CPI is projected to rise 0.5% on a monthly basis and 4.9% on an annual basis. If those estimates are correct, it would be the highest year-over-year reading for headline CPI since June 1982[.]”
“Half A Billion In Bitcoin, Lost In The Dump” (The New Yorker). “Bitcoin is…easy to lose. Conventional money comes full of safeguards: paper currency is distinctively colored and has a unique feel; centuries of design have gone into folding wallets and zippered purses. And once your money is deposited in a bank you have a record of what you own. If you lose your statement, the bank will send you another. Forget your online password and you can reset it. The sixty-four-character private key for your bitcoin looks like any other computer rune and is nearly impossible to memorize.”
“The Best Way To Fix America’s Chip Shortage” (Pat Gelsinger, Intel CEO). “Federal support would even the playing field and unlock tens of billions of dollars in private investment here at home. That's why Congress must fund the CHIPS for America Act, which will invest $52 billion in domestic semiconductor capacity and capability. The bill would provide billions in funding for manufacturing and R&D grants, invest heavily in advanced manufacturing and semiconductor research, establish public-private partnerships focused on the development of advanced microelectronics, and secure supply chains.”
“Better.Com CEO Apologizes To Remaining Staff For Mass Layoffs Over Zoom” (New York Post). “In a Zoom call last Wednesday, Garg callously laid off some 900 employees — then slammed hundreds of the ex-workers for allegedly ‘stealing from our customers’ by not being productive. In the wake of the mass termination, which was posted on TikTok and YouTube, at least three top executives have resigned from the company, Insider first reported.”
What we’re reading (12/8)
“Pfizer Says Booster Neutralized Omicron But Variant May Elude Two Doses” (Wall Street Journal). “Pfizer Inc. and BioNTech SE said that a third dose of their Covid-19 vaccine neutralized the Omicron variant in lab tests but that the two-dose regimen was significantly less effective at blocking the virus. A third dose increased antibodies 25-fold compared with two doses against the Omicron variant, the companies said.”
“Americans’ Pandemic-Era ‘Excess Savings’ Are Dwindling for Many” (New York Times). “Infusions of government cash that warded off an economic calamity have left millions of households with bigger bank balances than before the pandemic — savings that have driven a torrent of consumer spending, helped pay off debts and, at times, reduced the urgency of job hunts. But many low-income Americans find their savings dwindling or even depleted. And for them, the economic recovery is looking less buoyant.”
“Where Are All The Gig Workers And What Are They Doing?” (Bloomberg). “The Great Resignation is turning into the biggest economic puzzle of our time. Quits are up and hires are down, and employers from investment banks to McDonald's Corp. are complaining they can’t find workers. Where have people gone? It could be they are trying something new: life as an independent contractor or gig worker.”
“The Stock Market’s Covid Pattern: Faster Recovery From Each Panic” (New York Times). “The stock market has often been a barometer for the path of the pandemic, tumbling after concerning milestones, and rising on advancements of vaccinations and new treatments. But the two haven’t always moved in lock step, and Wall Street’s performance has at times disregarded the human toll of the pandemic as it instead zeroed in on other factors that could drive corporate profits, like low interest rates and government spending.”
“NFT Project Sells For $91.8m, Debatably Achieving The Highest Price Ever For A Work By A Living Artist” (The Art Newspaper). “Sold from Thursday through Saturday in an open edition on the NFT platform Nifty Gateway, more than 28,000 buyers spent an eye-watering total of $91.8m to acquire 266,445 total units of mass (for those who did not join in on the sale, ‘mass’ is analogous to ‘digital token’ and allows for some interesting wordplay with the terms of the sale). According to Nifty Gateway that could make this sale the most expensive ever for a work by a living artist.”
What we’re reading (12/7)
“The Great Labor Market Shakeup” (Brad DeLong, Project Syndicate). “What is going on in the US labor market? In normal times, the current figures would suggest that America is dealing with a great shortage of jobs. And yet, workers’ outsized willingness to quit their jobs and look for something better indicates that these are not normal times.”
“BuzzFeed’s A Public Company. Now what?” (Vox). “It’s not nearly as sexy a story as it was six or seven years ago, when BuzzFeed’s existence — along with other publishers like the Huffington Post and my employer, Vox Media — worried the New York Times enough that the paper created a what-do-we-do-now internal report dedicated to fending off the insurgents…A more concrete way of putting it: As of last week, BuzzFeed was valued at $1.5 billion — less than the $1.7 billion investors thought it was worth back in 2016, even though it has since acquired both HuffPost and Complex, both big publishers in their own right.”
“AB InBev Chief Dismisses Notion Beer Is Losing Ground To Spirits” (Financial Times). “‘Beer is big, beer is profitable and beer is growing,’ said Michel Doukeris, who this year took charge of the group behind Budweiser, Stella Artois and Corona. ‘For too long there [have been] people saying the opposite without showing the data.’”
“The CIA Is Deep Into Cryptocurrency, Director Reveals” (Vice). “There's a long-running conspiracy theory among a small number of cryptocurrency enthusiasts that Bitcoin's anonymous inventor, Satoshi Nakamoto, was actually the CIA or another three-lettered agency. That fringe theory is having a fresh day in the sun after CIA Director William Burns said on Monday that the intelligence agency has ‘a number of different projects focused on cryptocurrency’ on the go.”
“CNN And Chris Cuomo Are On The Brink Of All-Out War” (Vanity Fair). “Both sides are lawyering up and issuing dueling statements, as the former host’s past comes under renewed scrutiny. CNN also needs to fill a gaping prime-time hole (don’t count on Jake Tapper), and one talent agent suggests a path for Cuomo: ‘He could start a YouTube channel like Megyn Kelly.’”
What we’re reading (12/6)
“Stock Market Trends For 2022” (U.S. News & World Report). “The rise in interest rates is going to be a change for the markets. But it won’t necessarily hurt the appetite for investing in stocks. Rather, it could degrade the performance of some corners of the market, particularly growth stocks, which would favor value-oriented names, says James Ragan, director of wealth management research at D.A. Davidson in Seattle.”
“Dow Climbs More Than 600 Points Amid Renewed Volatility” (CNN Business). “‘We have quadruple expiration [of contracts] a week from Friday so we see those portfolios being changed around,’ [TD Ameritrade Chief Market Strategist J.J.] Kinahan told CNN Business. ‘And at the same time, it's the end of the year. The Nasdaq had a good run and people are repositioning for 2022.’”
“Stocks Get a Boost As Omicron Concerns Ease” (Wall Street Journal). “The S&P 500 recouped nearly all its losses for all of last week on Monday, and the Dow Jones Industrial Average more than regained what it had lost. Oil prices and bond yields also rose. Markets have whipsawed in recent days because of rising concerns about the new variant, which has clouded the market with uncertainty.”
“Why the Fed Chair Won’t Call Inflation ‘Transitory’ Anymore” (New York Times). “You might think the new Omicron variant of the coronavirus would make Powell and his fellow rate-setters reluctant to remove monetary stimulus. But while Omicron might cause the economy to grow more slowly, it won’t necessarily curb inflation. It could even make it worse if it suppresses the supply of goods and services — say, by forcing manufacturers and shippers to curtail operations. Powell cited ‘increased uncertainty’ about inflation as a result of Omicron in his prepared congressional testimony.”
“Why Have Prices Of Cryptocurrencies, Such As Bitcoin, Fallen—Again?” (The Economist). “The price of bitcoin, the world’s most popular cryptocurrency, fell by almost 20% at the weekend, from around $57,000 on December 3rd to $45,000 the next day (it has since partially recovered, to around $49,000). Other popular coins, including Ethereum, shed a similar proportion of their value. The market capitalisation of all crypto assets fell by $400bn to $2trn, before picking up slightly. Why did prices fall, and what makes cryptocurrencies so volatile?”
What we’re reading (12/5)
“Small-Cap Stocks Hit Hard by Covid-19 Omicron Variant” (Wall Street Journal). “The emergence of the Covid-19 Omicron variant has pummeled small-cap stocks. The Russell 2000 benchmark has dropped 7.4% since Thanksgiving, when the fast-spreading new variant made headlines. Last week, the index fell into a correction, declining more than 10% from its November record. The S&P 500 large-cap index, by comparison, has shed 3.5% since the variant news.”
“Market History Says Omicron Volatility Isn’t A Reason For Investors To Sell” (CNBC). “[T]here isn’t any instance across the 19 biggest VIX spikes of the past three decades after which stocks weren’t positive a majority of the time one month, three months, six months, and one year later. One month later, stocks were only up an average of 1%, but were positive 70% of the time, and the numbers get better with time.”
“Argentina’s Losing Streak In U.S. Court Alive And Well” (Dealbreaker). “[I]t’s no wonder [Argentine Vice President Cristina Fernandez de] Kirchner’s closest allies wanted the ability to do to recalcitrant American jurists what Argentina does with them, and equally little wonder Paul Singer refused to have anything to do with those restructured bonds. It’s probably a great surprise to all of those hedge funds who thought Argentina’s defaulting days were passed it.”
“The Las Vegas Strip’s Latest $4.3 Billion Crypto-Friendly Hotel Has $15,000-A-Night ‘Villas’ And ‘Palaces’ — See What It’s Like To Stay In One” (Insider). “Viva Las Vegas — in June, Resorts World Las Vegas, the Strip's first new casino resort in over a decade, officially opened its doors as the hospitality industry began its COVID-19 recovery…[b]ut unlike many of the Strip predecessors, Resorts World's amenities have a tech-friendly twist, such as the option to pay with cryptocurrency.”
“True Colors: 72 Hours Inside The Spend-Athon At Art Basel Miami Beach 2021” (Vanity Fair). “The city is right now experiencing a perfect storm of profligate check-signing. There’s been two years of wealth creation at the tippy top of the economic mountain, and at the same time the remote-working finance bros and metaverse-inhabiting tech tycoons have stampeded to tax-break-happy Florida, making this year’s Miami edition of Basel the Super Bowl of branding and the Oscars of luxury sales. The seemingly overnight creation of a $10 billion NFT market is already rivaling the art market as a whole.”
What we’re reading (12/4)
“Is Private Equity Overrated?” (DealBook). “[P]rivate equity has become the hottest home for institutional money, whether that of pension funds, endowments or sovereign wealth funds…[b]ut private equity’s returns increasingly may not provide the stellar performance that investors have been sold — and the returns can be misleadingly calculated in a way that overstates success.”
“Personal Data Is Worth Billions. These Startups Want You To Get A Cut.” (Wall Street Journal). “In his [Frank McCourt’s] vision, blockchain software, not owned by any individual, would store indelible information about users’ social connections. After getting permission from users, social-media companies would draw from this same pool of data about users’ connections and interactions. Theoretically, this would allow users to move their data between networks and prevent a single company from becoming too powerful. Users could get paid in a cryptocurrency for the use of their data.”
“Traders Signal Fed Overshooting Outlook For Interest-Rate Hikes” (Bloomberg). “In one corner of the U.S. rates market, traders have begun to contemplate the possibility of Federal Reserve rate cuts in 2025. That’s what the eurodollar futures market is predicting, as short-term interest-rate traders are pricing in a substantially lower peak for the Fed’s policy rate than the central bank expects. In other words, they are saying that the U.S. economy can’t cope with the number of rate hikes Fed officials are forecasting.”
“More Than $100 Million Of Metaverse Land Was Sold In The Last Week Alone. The Co-Founder Of A Virtual Real Estate Company Breaks Down Why The Opportunity In Digital Properties Could Rise 200x In 16 Months.” (Insider). “The sudden boom in virtual real estate investing strikes many investors as speculative and unsustainable, yet [Metaverse Co-Founder Michael] Gord said the trend is early enough that purchasing virtual lands is almost equivalent to buying pixels of a website in the early days of the internet, which was not possible.”
“How To Generate Better, Cheaper, More Abundant Random Numbers” (The Economist). “Randomness is a valuable commodity. Computer models of complex systems ranging from the weather to the stockmarket are voracious consumers of random numbers. Cryptography, too, relies heavily on random numbers for the generation of unbreakable keys. Better, cheaper ways of generating and handling such numbers are therefore always welcome. And doing just that is the goal of a project with the slightly tongue-in-cheek name of coinflips, which allegedly stands for Co-designed Improved Neural Foundations Leveraging Inherent Physics Stochasticity.”
What we’re reading (12/3)
“Can the Fed Overcome Its Transitory Policy Mistake?” (Mohamed El-Erian, Project Syndicate). “Many rightly note that the Fed does not have the tools to unblock supply chains or increase labor-force participation. But if the Fed had maintained even longer this transitory inflation mindset, it risked unleashing another strong driver of future price increases – that of unanchored inflation expectations. And while this would not mean a return to the double-digit inflation rates of the 1970s, it would result in the persistence of inflation rates significantly above what the economy and financial markets are safely wired for.”
“3 Jobs Trends To Look Out For Next Year” (CNN Business). “Expect strong job growth in 2022, unless Omicron hits hard…[l]abor shortages and rapid wage growth will continue…[r]emote work's impact may be bigger than expected[.]”
“America Is Running On Fumes” (The Atlantic). “If you believe in the virtue of novelty, these are disturbing trends. Today’s scientists are less likely to publish truly new ideas, businesses are struggling to break into the market with new ideas, U.S. immigration policy is constricting the arrival of people most likely to found companies that promote new ideas, and we are less likely than previous generations to build institutions that advance new ideas.”
“Turkey’s Economic Turmoil Sends Desperation And Inflation Soaring” (The Atlantic). “The Turkish lira has lost as much as 45% of its value this year, making ordinary Turks poorer. The pandemic-era consumer-price increases that have plagued economies across the world are supersize in Turkey, where inflation stands at more than 21%. People here are rushing to trade their shrinking wages for dollars and gold, are eating out less and are having more trouble finding imported goods, including medicine.”
“Your Future Landlord Just Outbid You For That House” (New York Times). “During the third quarter of 2021, investors bought more than 18 percent of the homes sold in the United States — about 90,000 homes in all, for a total of about $64 billion. That’s the highest share and the largest number in any quarter on record, according to a new report by Redfin.”
What we’re reading (12/2)
“Stocks Finish Higher After Omicron-Driven Selloff” (Wall Street Journal). “Equities rose, with the S&P 500 and Dow Jones Industrial Average more than recouping Wednesday’s losses. Oil prices and bond yields rose. Investors already confronting rising inflation are now also evaluating the likelihood that Omicron could spur changes in government or monetary policy, which has led to pronounced volatility in recent sessions.”
“Do We Really Need A 24-Hour Economy?” (The Nation). “[R]unning West Coast ports 24/7 won’t solve the supply-chain problem, not when there aren’t enough truckers to carry that critical patio furniture to Home Depot. The shortage of such drivers arises because there’s more demand than ever before, and because many truckers have simply quit the industry. As The New York Times reports, ‘Long hours and uncomfortable working conditions are leading to a shortage of truck drivers, which has compounded shipping delays in the United States.’”
“The FAANG Market Is Fading” (Morningstar). “Heading into the final weeks of 2021, an important trend has emerged in the stock market: The hyper-concentration of returns that saw a handful of stocks responsible for much of the gains last year has faded. Some of the largest stocks in the market still dominate returns to a degree that's greater than in previous years…[b]ut the trend in 2021 has shifted toward a lesser degree of concentration of returns. For investors, this is a potentially healthier dynamic, with less risk for index-tracking funds and more opportunities for stock-pickers.”
“I Lost $400,000, Almost Everything I Had, On A Single Robinhood Bet” (Vice). “I just went all in on this one single stock option: The $200 strike price call option on Alibaba…I initially invested $300,000 in February, basically every single liquid asset in my account. Not retirement, but everything cash. I didn't have anything left. My thesis was I might not make a lot of money, but I won’t lose much. The downside seemed limited, and that if worse comes to worse, it would go down to like $280,000…in July, I put in another almost $100,000…[t]he whole $400,000 turned to almost zero.”
“Nobel-Winning Stock Market Theory Used To Help Save Coral Reefs” (The Guardian). “A Nobel prize-winning economic theory used by investors is showing early signs of helping save threatened coral reefs, scientists say. Researchers at Australia’s University of Queensland used modern portfolio theory (MPT), a mathematical framework developed by the economist Harry Markowitz in the 1950s to help risk-averse investors maximise returns, to identify the 50 reefs or coral sanctuaries around the world that are most likely to survive the climate crisis and be able to repopulate other reefs, if other threats are absent.”
November 2021 performance update
Hi friends, here with a monthly performance update. Here are the monthly numbers:
Prime: +3.56%
Select: -5.94%
S&P 500-tracking “SPY” ETF: -1.03%
Bogleheads: -1.35%
November was a wild month:
A large number of companies reported quarterly earnings (including some of our picks)
Global supply chain issues remained pervasive globally ahead of the hugely important holiday season
The Bureau of Labor Statistics reported that consumer prices rose 6.2 percent (year-over-year) in October, the fastest increase in 30 years
The Fed announced plans to begin tapering asset purchases—and then, subsequently (on the last trading day of the month)—announced it would discuss the possibility of accelerating its tapering in its December meeting
The WHO declared the Omicron variant of the novel coronavirus a “variant of concern” on the third-to-last trading day of the month
Amid this chaotic news flow, equities as an asset class (but not the only asset class!) experienced elevated volatility, particularly in the last few trading sessions as markets digested the bits of information coming out about the new covid variant and assessed the valuation consequences of that information. To give a flavor of just how crazy the last few days have been, I took a look at the volatility (i.e., standard deviation) of daily returns of the SPY ETF since the start of Stoney Point back in May of 2020 excluding the last three days of November: 0.96 percent. In comparison, on Friday (11/26) of last week, Monday (11/29) of this week, and Tuesday (11/30) of this week, SPY was down 2.2 percent, up 1.2 percent, and down 1.9 percent, respectively.
The outperformance of Prime this month (up big) in comparison to the market (which was down by a smaller magnitude, but still a pretty significant one) against this backdrop was pretty exciting. Select giving up a good chunk of its gains from last month left something to be desired, of course. Stay tuned to see if we can close out the calendar year on a high note.
Stoney Point Total Performance History
What we’re reading (12/1)
“Markets Are Shrugging Off Omicron Worries. But The Variant Offers A Lesson Investors Should Heed.” (Washington Post). “Week after week, we’ve seen stocks make one high after another, and people who’ve put every dollar they could lay their hands on into stocks have done extremely well…[t]he market’s drop last Friday shows why it’s wise to keep a reasonable amount of cash on hand — ‘reasonable’ being a flexible term — rather than putting every penny you own and can borrow into stocks.”
“The Internet Is Not The Enemy” (Project Syndicate). “[W]hile many of the harms people ascribe to the internet are neither new nor caused by it, governments are seeking to regulate the internet as though they are. Before heading down that path, we had better be sure we are regulating the right thing.”
“Old Trucks For New Money” (The New Yorker). “While it’s keenly felt in Austin, the hunger for beautiful old trucks is a national phenomenon. Prices for vintage trucks rose more than fifty per cent in the past four years, twenty per cent more than the vintage-vehicle market as a whole, according to data from the collectible-car-insurance company Hagerty. The trend was evident well before the current microchip shortage sent used car prices through the roof…‘Everybody wants to be a cowboy, right?’”
“US Shale Patch’s Lackluster Recovery Is A Problem For The Post-COVID Oil Market” (Commodity Context). “In aggregate, the US shale patch production recovery has notably underperformed the recovery in crude prices. Whether that lackluster recovery has been driven by the fabled ‘producer cashflow discipline’, regulatory burden, or ubiquitous supply chain challenges is a question for a different day but we’ve already seen a considerable regional differentiation. The US shale patch is far from a monolith: in the Permian basin, for example, producers are setting fresh all-time highs, while the rest of the oil-dominant shale regions remain down 20-30%.”
“What Europe Can Teach Us About Jobs” (Paul Krugman, New York Times). “The problems with the U.S. approach are now becoming apparent. As I said, there’s no evidence that unemployment insurance has been significantly discouraging work. But where European labor support helped keep workers linked to their old jobs, facilitating a rapid return, U.S. policy allowed many of those links to be severed, making an employment recovery harder.”
December Prime + Select picks available now
The new Prime and Select picks for December are available starting now, based on a model run put through today (November 30). As a note, we’ll be measuring the performance on these picks from the first trading day of the month, Wednesday, December 1, 2021 (at the mid-spread open price) through the last trading day of the month, Friday, December 31, 2021 (at the mid-spread closing price).
What we’re reading (11/30)
“Nervous Traders Track Gauges As Markets Wrestle With Omicron” (Bloomberg). “To Fiona Cincotta, senior financial markets analyst at City Index, a close above 4,650 -- near where the S&P is holding -- would be an encouraging sign. But any sight of 4,585 -- the lows from Friday -- being broken on the downside means deeper declines could be in the offing still.”
“Markets Aren’t That Spooked By Omicron” (DealBook). “Covid-related stock market drops are getting milder and shorter. Back in February 2020, the S&P 500 fell 3.4 percent in one day and then continued to slide for a month and a half. In October 2020, a resurgence of cases led to a one-day market drop of 3.5 percent, but markets rebounded within two weeks. Friday’s decline was 2.3 percent, with a rebound beginning the next trading day.”
“What Happens When You’re The Investment” (The Atlantic). “Say Taylor [Swift] had issued her own token—let’s call it $SWIFT—and say she had sold $SWIFT to her biggest fans. Say I was one such fan. Over time, as Taylor’s popularity grew, the value of $SWIFT would have appreciated. As an early believer, I would have shared in the financial upside of her growing fame. The $SWIFT I’d bought for $100 in 2007 might be worth $100,000 today.”
“Inside Zillow As Waves Of Layoffs Leave Employees Reeling” (Insider). “Three current employees and seven who recently left the company said they were still struggling to understand what went wrong with Zillow Offers and what the failure meant for the rest of the company. While some staff are enjoying retention pay bumps, morale on various teams has plummeted as employees hear mixed messages about further reorganization and worry about working themselves out of their jobs.”
“Your Political Views Are Not Your Own” (Marginal Revolution). Citing a new paper in Psychological Science: “In a unique sample of 394 adoptive and biological families with offspring more than 30 years old, biometric modeling revealed significant evidence for genetic and nongenetic transmission from both parents for the majority of seven political-attitude phenotypes. We found the largest genetic effects for religiousness and social liberalism, whereas the largest influence of parental environment was seen for political orientation and egalitarianism. Together, these findings indicate that genes, environment, and the gene–environment correlation all contribute significantly to sociopolitical attitudes held in adulthood, and the etiology and development of those attitudes may be more important than ever in today’s rapidly changing sociopolitical landscape.”
What we’re reading (11/29)
“Jack Dorsey Steps Down As Twitter CEO, Board Unanimously Appoints CTO Parag Agrawal As Successor” (Twitter). “Twitter, Inc. […] today announced that Jack Dorsey has decided to step down as Chief Executive Officer and that the Board of Directors has unanimously appointed Parag Agrawal as CEO and a member of the Board, effective immediately. Dorsey will remain a member of the Board until his term expires at the 2022 meeting of stockholders. Bret Taylor was named the new Chairman of the Board, succeeding Patrick Pichette who will remain on the Board and continue to serve as chair of the Audit Committee. Agrawal has been with Twitter for more than a decade and has served as Chief Technology Officer since 2017.”
“Half Of This Year’s Big IPOs Are Trading Below Listing Price” (Financial Times). “Half of the companies that raised more than $1bn at initial public offerings this year are trading below their listing price, despite robust stock markets around the world…[t]heir weak performance has raised questions about the valuations pinned to companies by large investors such as SoftBank and Warburg Pincus and leading underwriters including Goldman Sachs and Morgan Stanley.”
“Airlines Avoid Thanksgiving Pitfalls As Daily Passengers Top Two Million” (Wall Street Journal). “Sunday was set to be the busiest travel day since the onset of the coronavirus pandemic, with the Transportation Security Administration predicting some 2.4 million people would pass through U.S. airports. Daily airport passenger volumes exceeded two million people for seven straight days through Wednesday, Nov. 24. After more muted volumes Thursday and Friday, TSA screened over 2.2 million people on Saturday.”
“The Job Market Is Looking Way Better. It’s Still Playing Catch-Up” (CNN Business). “More than 20 months into the pandemic, the US job market has reached a milestone. What's happening: Weekly claims for unemployment benefits fell to 199,000 last week after seasonal adjustments, their lowest level since 1969. They hit a peak of 6.15 million in April 2020. So, does that mean employment conditions are back to normal? Not quite.”
“Not That Seventies Inflation” (Project Syndicate). “Are the United States and other advanced economies experiencing stagflation, the unfortunate combination of high inflation and low growth in output and employment that characterized the mid-1970s? At least in America’s case, the answer is no. What the US is facing now is moderate inflation, without the stagnation part. That recalls the 1960s, not the decade that followed.”
What we’re reading (11/28)
“Fauci: Omicron Variant Will “Inevitably” Be Found In U.S.” (Axios). “Anthony Fauci, the director of the National Institute of Allergy and Infectious Diseases, cautioned on Sunday that the COVID-19 Omicron variant will ‘inevitably’ be found in the United States…He also said the variant looked likely to be highly transmissible, but officials need more data. ‘It has the molecular characteristics that would strongly suggest that it would be transmissible,’ Fauci said.”
“Wall St Week Ahead COVID-19 Fears Reappear As A Threat To Market” (Reuters). “With little known about the new variant, longer term implications for U.S. assets were unclear. At least, investors said signs that the new strain is spreading and questions over its resistance to vaccines could weigh on the so-called reopening trade that has lifted markets at various times this year. The new strain may also complicate the outlook for how aggressively the Federal Reserve normalizes monetary policy to fight inflation.”
“Black Friday Rout Shows Dangers Of Margin Borrowing” (Wall Street Journal). “Friday’s global retreat from riskier assets exposes a vulnerability of the broad market advance of the past year and a half: the rising use of leverage, or borrowed money…[b]orrowings against portfolios of stocks and bonds, broadly called margin debt, have grown as individual investors have become major players in the stock market. So too have concerns that debt-fueled buying could be a sign of overexuberance, setting the stage for tumultuous trading periods such as Friday’s, when the Dow Industrials posted their largest-ever Black Friday decline and the U.S. oil price dropped 13%.”
“Oil’s Black Friday: Algos And Options Turn A Tumble Into A Crash” (Bloomberg). “Black Friday turned red very quickly for global oil markets…[t]hen the options market kicked in. When prices fall heavily, banks often sell futures contracts in order to hedge themselves against losses from put options -- contracts that grant the right to sell at a particular price. Banks often sell puts to producers who want to protect against a bear market. This feedback loop, known as negative gamma to options traders, was seen as a factor on Friday.”
“How to Generate Alpha From Hidden Earnings Data” (Institutional Investor). “‘Core Earnings: New Data and Evidence,’ a report authored by Professor Ethan Rouen and Eric So of the MIT Sloan School of Management and Professor Charles Wang of Harvard Business School, explains that the primary challenge for analysts is to quantify and distinguish core-earnings items — those that stem from companies’ recurring central activities — from non-core-earnings items, which are related to “ancillary business activities or transitory shocks.”
December picks available soon
We’ll be publishing our Prime and Select picks for the month of December before Wednesday, December 1 (the first trading day of the month). As always, we’ll be measuring SPC’s performance for the month of November, as well as SPC’s cumulative performance, assuming the sale of the November picks at the closing price (at the mid-point of the closing bid and ask prices) on the last trading day of the month (Tues., November 30). Performance tracking for the month of December will assume the December picks are bought at the open price (at the mid-point of the opening bid and ask prices) on the first trading day of the month (Wednesday, December 1).
What we’re reading (11/27)
“Elon Musk And The Dangers Of Another Stock Bubble” (The New Yorker). “ Tesla now has a market capitalization of almost $1.2 trillion. That figure surpasses the capitalizations of Toyota, Volkswagen, General Motors, Ford, Daimler, BMW, Stellantis, Honda, Kia, and Hyundai combined. If you suspect that these figures are a bit crazy, you’re right. But the real clue to the current mind-set in the stock market is what has been happening to the stocks of Ford, General Motors, and other old-line auto companies. If Tesla, Rivian, Lucid, and other E.V. startups are going to dominate the global auto industry in the coming decades, the logical corollary is that the legacy carmakers are headed for the scrap heap. But, lo and behold, the market valuations of Ford and G.M. have been rising sharply, too.”
“Hertz-Tesla Deal Signals Broad Shift To EVs For Rental-Car Companies” (Wall Street Journal). “Car-rental customers could soon see more electric-vehicle options on airport lots and other places where they are looking to reserve a ride. The rental-car industry, long a big bulk-purchaser of new models in the car business, is sharpening efforts to add more battery-powered vehicles to fleets, the latest in a broader global shift among companies embracing greener technologies to cut their greenhouse-gas emissions.”
“The Value Of Nothing: Capital Versus Growth” (American Affairs). “[T]he U.S. economy is, to a unique extent, organized around maximizing asset values and returns on capital independently of growth—in terms of corporate behavior, financial market incentives, and government and central bank policy. This may seem obvious or even tautological: what is capitalism if not a system aimed at maximizing returns on capital? But the disconnect that has emerged between returns on U.S. financial assets and underlying economic performance—and even corporate profits—over the last few decades should raise deeper questions about basic economic policy assumptions and their theoretical foundations.”
“The Market’s Black Friday Freakout About The New Variant Shows How A Reactionary Wall Street Rules American Life And Politics” (Insider). “The moment echoes that seen over the summer, when the first headlines of the emerging Delta strain put a damper on the global recovery. Subsequent research showed vaccines are effective against Delta, and continued vaccination has helped put the world economy back on track for a full recovery, but the immediate reaction was strong enough to halt many companies' planned returns to their offices in the fall, and that decision resulted in months of weaker hiring before the boom recommenced.”
“Crypto-Trading Hamster That Outperformed Warren Buffett Has Died” (Fortune). “Mr. Goxx, whose real name was Max, gained prominence in September as a social experiment demonstrating the randomness of the crypto markets. Adjoined to his regular cage, the hamster had a fully equipped office from which he ran his trading firm, Goxx Capital.”
What we’re reading (11/26)
“Classification of Omicron (B.1.1.529): SARS-CoV-2 Variant of Concern” (World Health Organization). “This variant has a large number of mutations, some of which are concerning. Preliminary evidence suggests an increased risk of reinfection with this variant, as compared to other VOCs. The number of cases of this variant appears to be increasing in almost all provinces in South Africa. Current SARS-CoV-2 PCR diagnostics continue to detect this variant. Several labs have indicated that for one widely used PCR test, one of the three target genes is not detected (called S gene dropout or S gene target failure) and this test can therefore be used as marker for this variant, pending sequencing confirmation. Using this approach, this variant has been detected at faster rates than previous surges in infection, suggesting that this variant may have a growth advantage.”
“Countries Are Scrambling To Stop A New Covid Variant” (The Economist). “If the mutations in Omicron turn out to make covid vaccines less potent, the jabs may have to be tweaked. On November 26th Pfizer and BioNTech, makers of the covid jab that is most widely used in Western countries, said that they would be able to rework their mRNA vaccine within six weeks and ship the first batches within 100 days. The mutations in Omicron do not appear to be a threat to the efficacy of antiviral medicines for covid, but they could defeat some antibody therapies, which are given to people unable to mount an immune response.”
“Dow Tumbles 900 Points For Worst Day Of Year On Fears Of New Covid Variant, S&P 500 Drops 2%” (CNBC). “U.S. stocks dropped sharply on Friday as a new Covid variant found in South Africa triggered a global shift away from risk assets. The downward moves came after World Health Organization officials on Thursday warned of a new Covid-19 variant that’s been detected in South Africa. The new variant contains more mutations to the spike protein, the component of the virus that binds to cells, than the highly contagious delta variant.”
“Covid-19 Variant Upends Investor Bets On Rate Increases” (Wall Street Journal). “Investors piled into government bonds and quickly recalibrated their expectations for interest-rate increases in response to the new Covid-19 variant first identified in South Africa. The yield on the 10-year U.S. Treasury note dropped to 1.484% Friday, according to Tradeweb, from 1.644% at Wednesday’s close. That marks the largest trading-session decline since March 2020, at the start of the coronavirus pandemic. Yields fall as bond prices rise.”
“Oil Prices Drop More Than 10% As Virus Variant Threatens Blow To Demand” (Financial Times). “Oil prices plunged more than 10 per cent on Friday as reports of a virulent new coronavirus variant sparked fears of more pandemic lockdowns and another blow to fuel demand, just as the US plans to release more supplies on to the market. West Texas Intermediate, the American oil benchmark, dropped by 13 per cent to settle at $68.15 a barrel as US traders returned following the Thanksgiving holiday.”
What we’re reading (11/25)
“Thanksgiving Feasts Return In Force But At A More Expensive Price” (Financial Times). “Led by jumps in prices for wheat, turkey, potatoes and corn, the prices of food commodities typically included in a Thanksgiving dinner were on average 25 per cent higher than pre-pandemic levels in 2019, a Financial Times analysis shows. The cost of travelling to see family and friends is also higher, with the US price of petrol up more than 50 per cent since the start of the year.”
“What Inflation? Small Investors Keep Piling Into Flashy Growth Stocks” (Wall Street Journal). “Growth stocks are typically companies—often tech firms—that are expected to deliver faster-than-average profit growth in the future. They tend to flourish in a low-rate environment, including over the past year and a half. Investors are typically willing to pay higher prices for such companies when they don’t see many alternatives for making sizable profits.”
“The Reddit Reckoning Had Short-Sellers Scrambling. Now They're Back With A Vengence: ‘I Gave These Meme Guys, These Reddit Guys Too Much Credit’“ (Insider). “[I]t turns out the demise of short-sellers has been greatly exaggerated. The real story of short-sellers in 2021 is a more complicated picture of diverging fortunes…[t]otal activist short campaigns have declined this year, but shares of their targets are down an impressive 25% on average for the first three quarters of 2021, according to research from the data and analytics company Breakout Point.”
“Adventure Capitalism” (The Economist). “Now capitalism’s dream machine is itself being scaled up and transformed, as an unprecedented $450bn of fresh cash floods into the vc scene. This turbocharging of the venture world brings significant risks, from egomaniacal founders torching cash to pension pots being squandered on overvalued startups. But in the long run it also promises to make the industry more global, to funnel risk capital into a wider range of industries, and to make vc more accessible to ordinary investors. A larger pool of capital chasing a bigger universe of ideas will boost competition, and is likely to boost innovation, leading to a more dynamic form of capitalism.”
“When People Thought The First Thanksgiving Was Too Woke” (Politico). “Reflecting the sharp polarization in national politics [in 1863], many Democrats and peace proponents refused to acknowledge the president’s [Lincoln’s] proclamation of the new holiday, and some even denounced it as an attempt to impose a particular brand of New England fanaticism on the whole country. Lincoln’s proclamation unleashed the social resentments of many voters who resisted the growing influence of evangelical churches and the concurrent growth of social reform movements — from abolitionism and temperance to Sabbatarianism and women’s rights.”
What we’re reading (11/24)
“Bill Ackman’s $1 Billion Inflation Bet” (Institutional Investor). “[A]fter making $2.6 billion on his big Covid-19 short in 2020, this year another macro short of his is panning out: a $170 million bet on inflation that is now worth $1 billion…Pershing Square made its bet with options, taking a notional short position principally in shorter-dated maturities of U.S. Treasuries, as well as some longer ten-year dated debt, Ackman said.”
“JPMorgan's Dimon Says He Regrets China Communist Party Comment” (Reuters). “JPMorgan Chase Chief Executive Jamie Dimon said on Wednesday he regretted his remarks that the Wall Street bank would last longer than China's Communist Party, moving quickly to avoid any longer-term fallout.”
“More Chips Will Be Made In America Amid A Global Spending Surge” (Wall Street Journal). “The new factories won’t be operational for years. But the investment promises to boost America’s production foothold in advanced chip making after decades of ceding ground to locations in Asia like Taiwan, South Korea and China. It comes at a time, though, when chip makers are investing heavily in these locations, too”
“Rivian’s IPO Enriched Hedge Fund Third Point” (Barron’s). “The Financial Times reported that Dan Loeb’s hedge fund Third Point has made hundreds of millions of dollars on its stake in electric-truck startup Rivian Automotive. Early investors making a mint isn’t all that surprising. But it does show the benefits of being a well-placed institutional investor. Third Point has made an estimated profit of as much as $300 million, according to the report.”
“Wall Street Grudgingly Allows Remote Work As Bankers Dig In” (New York Times). “Wall Street is in revolt. Across the financial industry, at firms big and small, workers are slow-walking their return to the office. Bankers for whom working from home was once unfathomable now can’t imagine going back to the office full-time. Parents remain worried about transmitting the coronavirus to their children. Suburban dwellers are chafing at the thought of resuming long commutes. And many younger employees prefer to work remotely.”