What we’re reading (3/3)
“In A Day Of Wild Market Moves, Oil Is A New Haven” (Wall Street Journal). “It’s natural to think that with the U.S. and Israel starting a new war in the Middle East, the fall in stock prices would come with a rush for havens. And it would be easy to mistake the big rise in the dollar for investors seeking safety in the normal way. But it would be wrong. Instead, the moves on Tuesday look much more like an oil-price reaction, combined with cutbacks in overextended winning positions. Sure, the dollar index rose about 1% at its best, which is typically part of a search for safety. But currencies usually regarded as even safer in a crisis fell against the greenback: The Swiss franc was down 0.5% at the same time, the yen off 0.3% and gold down 4%.”
“Oil Prices Surge As Analysts Say Iran Conflict ‘May Be Different’ From Previous Flare-Ups” (Yahoo! Finance). “Markets have largely learned to downplay conflict-driven oil shocks, with crude prices often recovering quickly after an initial pop. But analysts say the most recent Iran strikes could be different. Oil prices have surged by roughly 15% since the US and Israel began a major airstrike campaign against Iran on Saturday, killing Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei and provoking a violent and chaotic response from Iran that has engulfed the Middle East.”
“Gold Tumbles Amid Broader Market Sell-Off As Dollar Rises” (Yahoo! Finance). “Bullion touched its lowest level since February, wiping out gains accrued following the US and Israeli strikes on Iran over the weekend. Investors weighed the inflationary effects of higher oil prices and the growing likelihood that the Federal Reserve may cut interest rates less than previously expected.”
“Can A.I. Be Pro-Worker” (The New Yorker). “The three M.I.T. economists don’t underestimate the scale of the challenge. “None of the big companies are pouring even a small fraction of their investment into developing A.I. as a pro-human, pro-worker tool,” Acemoglu said in his interview. To reorient things, he and his colleagues make a series of policy recommendations, including changing the tax laws, fostering competition in the A.I. sector, and giving workers a direct stake in A.I. One key proposal is for the government to use its financial power—both as a provider of research grants, and as a buyer and user of technology systems—to push the development of A.I. in a pro-worker direction.”
“Having Your Own Government Try To Destroy You Is (At Least Temporarily) Good For Business” (Astral Codex Ten). “Anthropic isn’t publicly traded, so we turn to the prediction markets. Ventuals.com has a ‘perpetual future’ on Anthropic stock, a complicated instrument attempting to track the company’s valuation, to be resolved at the IPO…Upon the “supply chain risk” designation, predicted value at IPO fell from about $550 billion to $475 billion - then, after a day or two, went back up to $550 billion. No effect!”
