What we’re reading (3/2)
“US Stocks Recover, Gold Rises And Oil Surges As War With Iran Spreads” (CNN Business). “Oil prices surged, US stocks erased earlier losses and gold rose Monday as financial markets digested concerns about a broadening war with Iran. Investors are bracing for volatility in global energy markets as developments unfold in the Middle East. While markets saw sharp moves, the volatility so far has been largely as expected, and Wall Street is on watch for potential further disruptions to oil and gas prices.”
“How High Can Oil And Gas Prices Go Because Of The Iran War? Here Are The Scenarios” (CNBC). “The global oil market is facing a worst-case scenario as the U.S. war with Iran engulfs the Middle East with no clear off-ramp, increasing the risk of a prolonged supply disruption that could slow the global economy. Tanker traffic through the Strait of Hormuz, the world’s most important chokepoint for oil shipments, has come to a standstill as ship owners take precautionary measures. About a third of the world’s total seaborne oil exports passed through the Strait in 2025, according to energy consulting firm Kpler.”
“What It Would Take For Oil To Reach $120 Per Barrel, According To JPMorgan” (MarketWatch). “‘Beyond the initial knee-jerk reaction, the trajectory of oil prices will ultimately depend on four variables: how many barrels are physically disrupted; how long the disruption lasts; in a prolonged disruption, whether credible replacement supply — including potential releases from strategic reserves — can be mobilized quickly enough to avoid a structural tightening of the global oil balance; and what comes next,’ says [JPM strategist Natasha] Kaneva.”
“Airlines Grapple With Disruptions That ‘Far Surpass’ Previous Middle East Conflicts” (Wall Street Journal). “‘The situation far surpasses anything we’ve seen in the Middle East previously,’ said Matt Borie, chief intelligence officer at aviation risk firm Osprey, citing the vast scale of Iran’s retaliation across the region following last weekend’s broad attacks from Israel and the U.S.”
“Goldman Traders See ‘Painful’ Path For US Stocks Before Rebound” (Bloomberg). “US equities may need to pull back further before they can mount a durable advance, Goldman Sachs Group Inc.’s trading desk warned, citing fragile sentiment and choppy flows that left the S&P 500 vulnerable after its latest attempt to clear the 7,000 level fizzled. ‘The only way up is down from here,’ Goldman’s trading desk team including Gail Hafif and Brian Garrett wrote in a note to clients. A broadly supportive macro backdrop has done little to help stocks absorb geopolitical tensions and sharp swings in commodity prices, creating what the bank’s traders called a ‘painful’ near-term path.”
