What we’re reading (7/9)
“This Early-Warning Indicator Is Telling The Stock Market That A Recession Is More Likely” (MarketWatch). “There’s a significantly elevated chance that a U.S. recession will begin within the next 12 months. The odds are roughly one in five, in fact, based on the unusually wide spread between the Conference Board’s Consumer Confidence Index (CCI) and the University of Michigan’s Consumer Sentiment Index (UMI). Though you may regard a one-in-five chance as unlikely, you should know that the risk now is abnormally high.”
“Why It’s Not Too Late To Add International Exposure” (Morningstar). “After spending most of the past 10-15 years wandering in the wilderness, international stocks have finally found their footing this year. For the year to date through July 2, 2025, the Morningstar Global Markets ex-US Index has gained 18.1%, compared with 6.4% for the Morningstar US Market Index.”
“How Nvidia Became The World’s First $4 Trillion Company” (Wall Street Journal). “Nvidia, based in Santa Clara, Calif., designs the chips, known as graphics processing units, or GPUs, that power the AI industry. The rally in Nvidia’s shares caps a remarkable run and comes barely two years after the company notched a $1 trillion closing valuation for the first time. The AI chip maker, which closed at $162.88 a share and just shy of the $4 trillion mark, is now worth as much as the 214 smallest companies in the S&P 500 combined, according to Dow Jones Market Data.”
“Trump Tariffs Live Updates: Trump Blasts Brazil With 50% Tariff, Puts Copper Tariff At 50% In Effect August 1” (Yahoo! Finance). “The highlight of his letter barrage late Wednesday was his announcement of a coming 50% tariff on goods from Brazil in a letter sent to its president, Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva. Trump cited the country's treatment of former President Jair Bolsonaro, who is on trial in Brazil’s Supreme Court on charges that he plotted a coup in 2022.”
“Brazil Assets Plunge After Trump Hikes Tariff Rate to 50%” (Bloomberg). “Donald Trump’s threat to impose 50% tariffs on Brazilian goods sent the country’s currency plunging as the US leader sharply escalated a dispute with Latin America’s largest nation and leftist leader Luiz Inacio Lula da Silva.”
