What we’re reading (7/15)
“Economists Are Cutting Back Their Recession Expectations” (Wall Street Journal). “Economists are dialing back recession risks. Easing inflation, a still-strong labor market and economic resilience led business and academic economists polled by The Wall Street Journal to lower the probability of a recession in the next 12 months to 54% from 61% in the prior two surveys.”
“Why Deep-Sea Mining Is The Next Battleground In The Energy Transition” (DealBook). “Surging demand for metals used in electric vehicle batteries has kicked off an international race to mine the deep seas. And there are no rules. On Sunday, the International Seabed Authority missed an important deadline to establish a regulatory framework, which means that companies can now apply for licenses before rules are final. Representatives from the agency, which is made up of 167 member states and the European Union, have gathered in Jamaica for two weeks to debate what should happen next.”
“A 10-Day UPS Strike Could Be The Costliest In US History” (CNN Business). “A 10-day UPS strike could cost the US economy $7.1 billion. That could make it the costliest work stoppage ever in US history, according to an estimate from a Michigan economic research firm [Anderson Economic Group] that studies the costs of labor disruptions.”
“Slow Burn Minsky Moments” (GMO). “We seem to live in an era of rolling financial crisis. I suspect this is the result of a massive build-up of private sector debt. Sometimes, these build-ups are accompanied by very high rates of credit growth, giving rise to a credit bubble. On other occasions, these build-ups sit simmering in the background, largely unnoticed until the proverbial s**t hits the fan, when they suddenly act as an amplifier causing causing a much steeper decline than would otherwise have been the case…Sadly, most markets appear to carry the fingerprint of these moments today.”
“Bond Market Outlook: Valuations Suggest Potential for Equity-Like Returns With Less Risk” (PIMCO). “High-quality fixed income assets may offer the best return potential in more than a decade along with diversification benefits as a likely recession approaches.”
