What we’re reading (7/12)
“Economists See Lower Recession Risk And Stronger Job Growth: WSJ Survey” (Wall Street Journal). “The economic fallout from President Trump’s policies may prove less dire than feared. Economists expect stronger growth and job creation, lower risk of recession and cooler inflation than they did three months ago, according to The Wall Street Journal’s quarterly survey of professional forecasters. The reason: The Journal’s previous survey was conducted at the height of the president’s threats to impose eye-watering tariffs on America’s biggest trading partners. He paused some of the tariffs shortly thereafter. Whether the improved mood lasts remains to be seen.”
“The Big Picture” (Briefing.com). “The second-quarter earnings reporting period is upon us, and, well, what a difference a quarter makes. Heading into the first-quarter earnings reporting period in mid-April, the world was awash in growth concerns linked to the D.O.G.E. cost-cutting campaign in the U.S., President Trump's reciprocal tariff announcements, and a cold trade war with China. There was ample concern that companies would either be slashing their full-year guidance or pulling their full-year guidance, citing a lack of visibility. There was some of that, but it wasn't the universal message. As it turned out, the first quarter results were much better than expected, and the guidance, which many companies still gave, was much better than feared.”
“Unsold Homes Surge Nationwide As Housing Market Stalls” (Newsweek). “Thousands of unsold homes are piling up in the U.S. housing market as Americans— facing climbing prices, historically high mortgage rates and growing economic uncertainty—buy fewer homes, according to the latest figures. This year was supposed to bring a rebound of the U.S. housing market, experts said in 2024. Instead, the market has come to a standstill as buyers retreat to the sidelines but prices refuse to budge.”
“Macro Hedge Funds Diverge Sharply Amid Tariff Turbulence” (Institutional Investor). “Macro hedge funds posted wildly different results in the first six months of the year, a volatile period marked by President Trump’s on-again, off-again tariffs. These are the managers who make investment bets in various markets based on their takes on economic and political developments. For example, Bridgewater Associates reported a 17 percent gain in its flagship Pure Alpha fund in the first half of the year, according to someone who has seen the results. All Weather — its beta fund — picked up 8 percent for the period, and the Asia Total Return fund rose 18 percent…Robert Citrone’s Discovery Capital Management, meanwhile, posted a 2.5 percent increase in June, bringing its total gain for the first half to 12.5 percent. Discovery is a combination macro and fundamental global equities fund.”
“The First In 30 Years: Scientists Discover New Class Of Antibiotics” (SciTechDaily). “It has been nearly thirty years since a new class of antibiotics reached the market, but that could soon change. Researchers at McMaster University have made a breakthrough that could help turn the tide against drug-resistant bacteria. Led by scientist Gerry Wright, the team has discovered a powerful new molecule called lariocidin. This promising candidate shows the ability to fight some of the toughest, most drug-resistant bacteria known to science. Their groundbreaking findings were published in the journal Nature.”
