What we’re reading (5/24)
“What Our Brains Know About Stocks—But Won’t Tell Us” (Wall Street Journal). “In the past few years, researchers have been investigating “neuroforecasting.” That’s the apparent ability of activity in the brain to forecast outcomes—even when people are unaware of it. Neuroscientists have asked participants to predict which requests for microlending will raise the most money online, which ventures will receive the most crowdfunding, how popular video clips or songs will be, or whether a stock would go up or down. Consistently, people’s conscious choices when confronted with these sorts of questions aren’t significantly better than chance. But the intensity of activation in their nucleus accumbens, an area of the brain that subconsciously processes anticipation of reward, turns out to be a good predictor of what people will collectively decide they like.”
“A Lender To Consumer Start-Ups Falters, Rattling Its Clients” (New York Times). “A popular lender backed by venture capital firms is struggling financially, sending shock waves through the small clothing and home furnishing companies that count on its financing. The lender, Ampla, spent years courting small direct-to-consumer brands with low rates and a pitch that it understood their needs. In recent weeks, its top executives have been searching for a buyer, two people familiar with the firm’s finances said. Last week, Ampla, which is based in New York, said it would lay off half its 62 workers.”
“America Is Still Having A ‘Vibecession’” (Paul Krugman, New York Times). “The gold standard for assessing economic perceptions is the Federal Reserve’s annual survey of economic well-being of American households. The results of the latest survey, taken in October, have just been released, and while there’s a lot of information in the report — notably, families with children appear to have been hit hard by the end of pandemic-era financial aid — the key finding hasn’t changed much. Most Americans continue to say that they’re doing OK financially, but they think the national economy is doing badly — while they’re being considerably more positive about their local economy. Wasn’t it always thus? No. As the report notes, ‘the gap between people’s perceptions of their own financial well-being and their perception of the national economy has nearly doubled since 2019.’”
“The Rise And Fall Of Simon Sadler's Segantii, One Of Asia's Most Successful Hedge Funds” (Bloomberg). “The legal heat became too much for Simon Sadler. The founder of Segantii Capital Management has told investors that it’s winding down and returning their money, marking the end of a 16-year run for one of the largest and most successful hedge funds[.]”
“Welcome To The WFH Friday Economy: It’s A Time For Hair Masks, Spas, Day Drinking, And No-Camera Meetings” (Business Insider). “Friday was the most popular day for spa and salon appointments booked on ClassPass in 2023, according to data the company provided to BI. The top time for fitness classes on Fridays in 2023 was 12 p.m. — perhaps indicating a rush of lunchtime exercisers. The top time to hit the salon or spa was 5 p.m. on the dot. Upticks in foot traffic at Starbucks, Sweetgreen, and Panera Bread shown by Placer.ai could suggest people are more frequently treating themselves to lunch or coffee out, working at coffee shops, or signing off earlier from work on Fridays. Indeed, an ActivTrak analysis of 75,000 workers found that whether or not they were going into the office on Friday, they were signing off at about 4 p.m. that day, compared with 5 p.m. on Mondays through Thursdays.”
