What we’re reading (5/9)
“Baffled By The Trump Tariffs, C.E.O.s Lean On The Word ‘Uncertainty’” (New York Times). “Corporate America is stumbling in the dark, and so are investors. Ford and General Motors executives say they can’t estimate what lies ahead. There’s too much fog even to hazard a guess, so both companies have suspended earnings guidance — signals about future sales and profits — leaving investors to navigate on their own. And the automakers are not the only ones. A broad range of companies, including Delta Air Lines, Southwest Airlines, the footwear company Skechers, UPS and the engine manufacturer Cummins, say they can’t talk confidently about the future.”
“Wall Street Bonuses Could Drop As Much As 20% Because Of Trump Tariff Turmoil” (New York Post). “Bonuses on Wall Street could plunge by as much as 20% as dealmaking dries up and the stock market whipsaws because of economic turmoil caused by President Donald Trump’s trade war, according to a top consultancy. Johnson Associates, a compensation specialist, said deals have all but ground to a halt over Trump’s threats to slap stiff tariffs on imported goods. In its latest outlook report released Thursday, the firm predicted a 10% cut to bonuses for investment bankers as ‘expected M&A ‘mania’ disappoints with economic uncertainty’ over the looming heavy levies.”
“Paper Strips, Floppy Disks, And 1940’s Tech: Let’s Modernize Our Air Traffic System” (The Hill). “The root of the problem? The U.S. still relies on outdated, decades-old technology to maneuver jumbo jets. While other countries have embraced digital displays and infrared-based systems, American air traffic controllers are trained to use paper strips, floppy disks and World War II-era radar technology.”
“There’s A National Egg Crisis, And One Company Is Making A Lot Of Money” (Wall Street Journal). “Eggs are the most visible symbol of the toll that inflation is taking on U.S. consumers, and no one sells more of them than Cal-Maine. Its 50 million hens produce roughly one out of every five eggs sold in the U.S. As egg prices have tripled in three years during a nationwide bird-flu epidemic, its stock has doubled…Prices for a lot of major commodities like hogs, corn, wheat, soybeans and cattle trade on markets run by exchange operator CME Group. Futures trading in these commodities can help farmers and businesses hedge against price fluctuations. Eggs are different. The egg industry relies on contracts between a customer, like Walmart or Kroger, that wants to buy a certain amount of eggs from a supplier like Cal-Maine.”
“Convergence? Thoughts About The Evolution Of Mainstream Macroeconomics Over The Last 40 Years” (Olivier Blanchard). “This year marks the 40th anniversary of the NBER Macro Annual Conference, founded in 1986. This paper reviews the evolution of mainstream macroeconomics since then. It presents my views, informed by a survey of a number of researchers who have made important contributions to the field. I develop two main arguments. The first is that, starting from strikingly different positions, there has been substantial convergence, in terms of methodology, architecture, and main mechanisms. The second is that this convergence has been, for the most part, good convergence, i.e., the creation of a generally accepted conceptual and analytical structure, a core to which additional distortions can be added, allowing for discussions and integration of new ideas and evidence, rather than fights about basic methodology.”
