What we’re reading (3/8)
“Fear of a Recession Spooks the Market” (DealBook). “It seems even the most bullish on Wall Street now get the message: The Federal Reserve is prepared to raise interest rates until it feels it’s sufficiently beaten back inflation — even if those moves cool off the job market and send the economy into recession.”
“The Rally In Stocks Won’t Be Swayed By A Hawkish Powell, As Falling Inflation Still Points To A 20% Gain For The Market This Year, Fundstrat Says” (Insider). “The rally in stocks isn't going to be derailed by a hawkish Federal Reserve, as falling inflation still points to a 20% gain for the market this year, according to Fundstrat's head of research Tom Lee. In a note on Wednesday, Lee reiterated his bullish view on stocks despite Fed Chairman Jerome Powell's hawkish testimony before Congress on Tuesday.”
“Job Openings Declined In January But Still Far Outnumber Available Workers” (CNBC). “The Labor Department’s Job Openings and Labor Turnover Survey, or JOLTS, showed there are 10.824 million openings, down some 410,000 from December, the Labor Department reported. That equates to 1.9 job openings per available worker, or a gap of 5.13 million.”
“U.S. Shale Boom Shows Signs Of Peaking As Big Oil Wells Disappear” (Wall Street Journal). “The boom in oil production that over the last decade made the U.S. the world’s largest producer is waning, suggesting the era of shale growth is nearing its peak. Frackers are hitting fewer big gushers in the Permian Basin, America’s busiest oil patch, the latest sign they have drained their catalog of good wells. Shale companies’ biggest and best wells are producing less oil, according to data reviewed by The Wall Street Journal.”
“Can Policymakers Trust Forecasters?” (Institute for Progress). “Despite all this, the superforecaster phenomenon appears real: the very best forecasters are more skilled than others at predicting, in arbitrary domains, even given little prior knowledge. But where does that leave policymakers looking for insight into the future? If you’re a policymaker, how can you know when to seek expert counsel, invoke statistical models, query the forecasters, or do all of the above? Our problem is matching the right platform to the right policymaker, based on the information they need, and augmenting one method of forecasting with the others.”
