What we’re reading (3/17)
“Inflation vs. Recession: The Fed Is Walking A Tightrope” (New York Times). “The Fed announced Wednesday that it would start raising interest rates for the first time since 2018, and the initial reaction of financial markets was welcoming. The stock market rose, bond yields wavered and commodity prices moderated. But whether the economy can withstand rising rates during a period of geopolitical turmoil and a lingering pandemic is a question without an immediate answer.”
“The Disturbing New Relevance Of Theories Of Nuclear Deterrence” (The Economist). “The problem of credibility becomes far more complicated in a showdown between nuclear-armed powers, which both have sufficient weaponry to retaliate against any first strike with a devastating attack of their own. If the first use of nuclear weapons is all but assured to bring ruin on one’s own country as well, then efforts to use the threat of nuclear attack to extract concessions are likelier to fail. Wars may nonetheless occur. The invasion of Ukraine could be seen as an example of the stability-instability paradox: because the threat of a nuclear war is too terrible to contemplate, smaller or proxy conflicts become ‘safer’[.]”
“Amazon Closes Deal To Acquire MGM” (Wall Street Journal). “The move comes after Amazon certified to the FTC that it had provided all the information requested by antitrust investigators reviewing the transaction. That step put the deal on a regulatory clock with the agency that has now expired, leaving the company free to move forward, a person familiar with the matter said. Amazon provided the FTC with more than three million documents over the past eight months as part of the review process, the person familiar with the matter said.”
“Revising Down The Rise Of China” (Lowy Institute). “The future of China’s ongoing global rise is of great importance to both China and the rest of the world. Predicting long-term economic performance is inherently difficult and open to debate. Nonetheless, we show that substantial long-term growth deceleration is the likely future for China given the legacy effects of its uniquely draconian past population policies, reliance on investment-driven growth, and slowing productivity growth.”
“Are Home Prices Going To Crash? A Real-Estate Expert Who's Written Multiple Books On Investing Strategy Breaks Down Why Prices Could Grow ‘Faster Than We Can Get A Handle On’“ (Insider). “Predicting the market is tricky. While [loan officer David] Greene sees more gains to be had, others caution of a correction. And some experts and industry veterans suggest that anyone who stands to benefit from the continued run on the housing market — particularly investors, real estate agents, and mortgage brokers — are naturally going to keep pumping air into the bubble.”
