What we’re reading (2/24)
“Russia's Attack On Ukraine Means These Prices Are Going Even Higher” (CNN Business). “Economists are racing to assess the impact of the attack, which could spark the biggest war in Europe since 1945. The conflict is unlikely to tip the global economy back into recession, they say, but market tumult, the threat of punishing sanctions and potential supply disruptions are already pushing up the wholesale price of energy and some agricultural products. Consumers will pay more for gasoline and food as a result.”
“A Simple Model Of What Putin Will Do For An Endgame” (Marginal Revolution). “In my simple model, in addition to a partial restoration of the empire, Putin desires a fundamental disruption to the EU and NATO. And much of Ukraine is not worth his ruling. As things currently stand, splitting Ukraine and taking the eastern half, while terrible for Ukraine (and for most of Russia as well), would not disrupt the EU and NATO. So when Putin is done doing that, he will attack and take a slice of territory to the north. It could be eastern Estonia, or it could relate to the Suwalki corridor, but in any case the act will be a larger challenge to the West because of explicit treaty commitments. Then he will see if we are willing to fight a war to get it back.”
“Putin’s Attack On Ukraine Echoes Hitler’s Takeover Of Czechoslovakia” (Washington Post). “In March 1938, during the run-up to World War II, Hitler had first engineered the Nazi takeover of Austria, which already had strong pro-Nazi sympathies. Seven months later, he was plotting the seizure of part of Czechoslovakia, claiming that ethnic Germans in the Sudeten regions bordering eastern Germany were being mistreated.”
“Russia-Ukraine Crisis Shakes Markets, But Long-Term Outlook Is Better” (New York Times). “Riding out a storm in the stock market has been a good strategy over the long term. One year after the 1941 bombing of Pearl Harbor, the S&P 500 gained 15 percent. A year after the U.S. invasion of Iraq in 2003, it was up 35 percent. History shows that just one year after most stock-market-shattering crises, the S&P 500 stock index has risen.”
“Citadel Is Further Paring Back $2 Billion Melvin Investment” (Wall Street Journal). “Citadel LLC is further paring back its $2 billion investment in Melvin Capital Management after the hedge fund stumbled in its effort to recover from a near collapse triggered by surges in GameStop Corp. and other ‘meme stocks’ early last year.”
