What we’re reading (10/4)
“Stock Funds Hold A 11% Gain For 2025 So Far” (Wall Street Journal). “With stock indexes smashing records, the average U.S.-stock fund rose 7.2% in the third quarter, to push the year-to-date gain to nearly 11%, according to LSEG data. Those are gaudy numbers for mutual funds and exchange-traded funds compared with earlier in the year, when it looked as if the stock market would register a poor year. In fact, stock funds are now on pace to rise in double digits for three straight years, even though the 2025 performance won’t likely match last year’s 17.4% gain or the previous year’s 21%.”
“Are We In A Recession? Yes — If You Live In One Of These 22 States.” (MarketWatch). “The U.S. economy is very close to falling into a damaging contraction — and many states are already in a recession, according to Mark Zandi, chief economist at Moody’s Analytics. Zandi estimates that 22 states and the District of Columbia are now experiencing persistent economic weakness and job losses that are likely to continue. Another 13 states are treading water, he noted. The overall picture is one of a weak U.S. economy that is vulnerable to being pushed into a ditch by a strong wind.”
“The Collapse Of The Econ PhD Job Market” (Chris Brunet). “For decades, a doctorate in economics was a golden ticket. It promised a path to tenure, or at worst, a lucrative role at a central bank, think tank, or tech firm. Not anymore. The economics job market is in freefall, and the profession’s own data proves it.”
“If You’re Not An AI Startup, Good Luck Raising Money From VCs” (TechCrunch). “PitchBook reports that VCs have poured $192.7 billion into the industry so far this year, out of a total $366.8 billion, according to Bloomberg. In the most recent quarter, AI accounted for 62.7% of the money invested by U.S. VCs, and for 53.2% of money invested by global firms.”
“What Bubble? By This Measure, The AI Boom Still Isn’t At Dotcom Bust Levels” (Fortune). “Relentless stock market highs, astronomical valuations for OpenAI, and reports of hyperscalers taking on more debt have stoked fears that the AI boom is another tech bubble ready to pop. Even OpenAI CEO Sam Altman acknowledged this summer that investors were getting ‘overexcited about AI’ and drew parallels with the dotcom bubble. But Capital Economics pointed out that year-ahead earnings forecasts for S&P 500 companies—forward-12-month (FTM) earnings per share (EPS)—are rising and underpin the stock market rally.”
