What we’re reading (10/23)
“September CPI Preview: Inflation Seen Holding Firm Near 3% As Tariffs Complicate Fed’s Path” (Yahoo! Finance). “September's Consumer Price Index (CPI) is expected to show inflation holding stubbornly around 3%, underscoring how tariffs and service-sector stickiness continue to complicate the Federal Reserve's path toward its 2% target. The report, set for release on Friday at 8:30 a.m. ET, was delayed by the ongoing government shutdown. It marks the first major piece of federal economic data since the shutdown began — now the second-longest in US history with no end in sight.”
“Strong Earnings Reassure Jittery, Data-Deprived Investors” (Wall Street Journal). “Strong corporate earnings are easing investors’ anxieties about the health of the U.S. economy, providing support to markets buffeted by renewed trade tensions with China and worries about bad business loans.”
“Intel Stock Jumps As Q3 Earnings Beat Expectations, AI Drives Chip Demand” (Yahoo! Finance). “Intel (INTC) stock jumped as much as 7% after the bell Thursday as the chipmaker reported third quarter earnings and revenue that topped Wall Street's expectations. Intel reported $13.7 billion in revenue for the three months ended Sept. 27, higher than the $13.15 billion expected by analysts tracked by Bloomberg and $13.28 billion the previous year. The chipmaker said that adjusted earnings per share was $0.23, above the $0.01 projected by Wall Street. The company reported a loss of $0.46 during the same period in 2024.”
“Addressing The Gold Price From An Iran/China Barter Angle” (RealClear Markets). “The increase in price since February has not been accidental. This is when the U.S. announced its policy to harshly enforce sanctions targeting Iran’s oil supply chain, to blockade the country’s petroleum exports. The sanctions applied to many entities across countries, but the evidence is that Iran still exported $43 billion of mainly crude oil in 2024, according to estimates by the U.S. Energy Information Administration. Officials estimate that around 90% of those exports went to China. The Wall Street Journal described in an October 5 article how China and Iran avoid the sanctions through bartering. Iran is shipping oil to China and, in return, state-backed Chinese companies build infrastructure in Iran. Involved in this transaction are a Chinese state-owned insurer that, according to the Journal, calls itself the world’s largest export-credit agency, along with a secretive Chinese financial entity whose name is not on any public list of Chinese banks or financial firms.”
“When Will Quantum Computing Work?” (Tom McCarthy). “Huge investments are flowing into QC companies today. IonQ has a $19B market cap, Rigetti has a $10B cap, and PsiQuantum recently raised $1B. This is a lot of money for an industry generating no real revenue, and without an apparent path to revenue over the next 5 years. Qubit counts have not been doubling each year, but even if they did, we'd have 32 kq machines in 2030. There are few - if any - commercial applications for machines of that size. Will these companies keep raising larger rounds until they achieve 100 kq? Or have they got some secret sauce we don't know about that investors are betting on? If there has been a true breakthrough, we should see much faster growth in qubit count, as well as larger and larger quantum processors, running increasingly massive programs. Note that the QC ecosystem is reasonably public and both private companies and university labs are competitive players. Advances tend to get published rather than stowed away.”
