What we’re reading (11/5)
“Thoughts By A Non-Economist On AI And Economics” (Windows On Theory). “A remarkable fact is that (adjusted for inflation) U.S. GDP per capita has been growing at essentially a constant rate of roughly 2% over the past 150 years. None of the inventions in this period— including electrification, internal combustion engine, computers and the Internet— changed this trajectory. Note that 2% growth corresponds to a GDP ‘doubling rate’ of 35 years…The trillion dollar question is whether AI will break the 2% trend or not. Will AI be just another technology that allows us to sustain 2% growth for another couple of decades? Or will the “AI moment” be for us like post-WWII Japan? That is, should we model it as if we are meeting a new “AI frontier economy” which is vastly more productive, and this interaction will enable rapid growth, with GDP at least doubling every decade as was the case for Japan.”
“Gold Steadies As Traders Assess Outlook For US Interest Rates” (Bloomberg). “Gold steadied after the biggest gain in about a week, as traders assessed the outlook for US interest rates following private-sector jobs data. Bullion held just above $3,980 an ounce, after rising 1.2% on Wednesday. Figures from ADP Research showed payrolls rose 42,000 after two months of decline. While tempering concerns of a faster deterioration, the modest increase is consistent with a general softening in labor demand.”
“The Hurdles Elon Musk Must Clear To Unlock $1 Trillion In Tesla Pay” (Wall Street Journal). “Tesla shareholders will decide on Thursday whether to approve a record-setting pay package for Elon Musk that could ultimately give him new stock worth $1 trillion and a roughly 25% stake. Tesla’s longtime leader is already the company’s largest shareholder, with control over roughly 500 million shares, or a 15% stake. That includes interim shares he received in August but not options from a 2018 award that are held up in a court dispute.”
“Kazakhstan As The Solution To The ‘Rare Earths’ Problem” (RealClear Markets). “The country is among the world’s largest by its mineral reserves, with large deposits of copper, uranium, and rare earths. More than 100 deposits have been identified, and its rare-earth reserves are estimated at 2.6 million tons. In uranium, Kazakhstan remains the world’s largest producer, accounting for nearly 40 percent of global output in 2024 and maintaining a steady record of supply to U.S. utilities.”
“James Hardie Dealt Fresh Blow By Deepening US Housing Woes” (Bloomberg). “James Hardie Industries Plc shares tumbled after rivals sounded fresh warnings on the US home-improvement market, worsening what’s been a disastrous year for the company’s management and investors. The building products firm, listed in both the US and Australia, slumped as much as 17% in early Sydney trading on Thursday, following updates from a raft of companies exposed to US housing that fell short of expectations. The shares were down 12% at 1:25 p.m. as trading resumed after a suspension.”
